Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH).
The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a tropical cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and...
Main Author: | |
---|---|
Other Authors: | |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
1983
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA136146 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA136146 |
id |
ftdtic:ADA136146 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdtic:ADA136146 2023-05-15T18:25:34+02:00 Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). Jarrell,J D SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA 1983-10 text/html http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA136146 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA136146 en eng http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA136146 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE DTIC AND NTIS Meteorology Statistics and Probability *TROPICAL CYCLONES *WIND ATMOSPHERE MODELS PROFILES ERRORS PROBABILITY WIND VELOCITY AREA COVERAGE RADIUS(MEASURE) GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION THREATS OCEANS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BIVARIATE ANALYSIS CORRELATION PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS Ocean basins Southern ocean Tropical cyclone strike probability WINDPSH computer program Forward speed PE63207N WU6314 Text 1983 ftdtic 2016-02-21T21:33:15Z The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a tropical cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of earlier strike and wind probability models, is tested on independent data. Test results show good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author) Text Southern Ocean Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database Southern Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Defense Technical Information Center: DTIC Technical Reports database |
op_collection_id |
ftdtic |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *TROPICAL CYCLONES *WIND ATMOSPHERE MODELS PROFILES ERRORS PROBABILITY WIND VELOCITY AREA COVERAGE RADIUS(MEASURE) GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION THREATS OCEANS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BIVARIATE ANALYSIS CORRELATION PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS Ocean basins Southern ocean Tropical cyclone strike probability WINDPSH computer program Forward speed PE63207N WU6314 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *TROPICAL CYCLONES *WIND ATMOSPHERE MODELS PROFILES ERRORS PROBABILITY WIND VELOCITY AREA COVERAGE RADIUS(MEASURE) GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION THREATS OCEANS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BIVARIATE ANALYSIS CORRELATION PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS Ocean basins Southern ocean Tropical cyclone strike probability WINDPSH computer program Forward speed PE63207N WU6314 Jarrell,J D Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
topic_facet |
Meteorology Statistics and Probability *TROPICAL CYCLONES *WIND ATMOSPHERE MODELS PROFILES ERRORS PROBABILITY WIND VELOCITY AREA COVERAGE RADIUS(MEASURE) GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION THREATS OCEANS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BIVARIATE ANALYSIS CORRELATION PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS Ocean basins Southern ocean Tropical cyclone strike probability WINDPSH computer program Forward speed PE63207N WU6314 |
description |
The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a tropical cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of earlier strike and wind probability models, is tested on independent data. Test results show good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author) |
author2 |
SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA |
format |
Text |
author |
Jarrell,J D |
author_facet |
Jarrell,J D |
author_sort |
Jarrell,J D |
title |
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
title_short |
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
title_full |
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
title_fullStr |
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Southern Hemisphere (WINDPSH). |
title_sort |
tropical cyclone wind probability forecasting for the southern hemisphere (windpsh). |
publishDate |
1983 |
url |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA136146 http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA136146 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
DTIC AND NTIS |
op_relation |
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA136146 |
op_rights |
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE |
_version_ |
1766207116826116096 |