Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Estimation of Collision Risks Associated with ATC Separation Standards.

• Main Authors: Lloyd,D. E., Scott,P. P.
• Other Authors: ROYAL AIRCRAFT ESTABLISHMENT FARNBOROUGH (ENGLAND)
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1973
• Subjects: Aircraft; Safety Engineering; Air Navigation and Guidance; *AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS; *AVIATION ACCIDENTS; PREVENTION; AIR TRAFFIC; RISK; MONTE CARLO METHOD; UNITED KINGDOM; *Collision avoidance; *Risk analysis; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD0773313; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=AD0773313

The risk of collision between two aircraft, which are nominally separated by standard air traffic control procedures, depends on several quantities which cannot be determined exactly. This risk can, however, be estimated in several ways, one of which is to assign each indeterminate quantity a probability distribution and use Monte Carlo methods to combine these, giving a distribution of risk. It is this approach which is described in the report. Also presented is an example of the application of these methods, to the safety assessment of a proposed 90 mile lateral separation standard for North Atlantic jet aircraft. (Author)