Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs
Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied m...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.217637 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 |
id |
ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.217637 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.217637 2023-05-15T15:56:01+02:00 Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs Kadin, Martina Frederiksen, Morten Niiranen, Susa Converse, Sarah J. Baltic Sea 2019-07-17T22:59:01Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.217637 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.b5n8220/1 doi:10.1002/ece3.5385 doi:10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 Kadin M, Frederiksen M, Niiranen S, Converse SJ (2019) Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs. Ecology and Evolution. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.217637 Capture-recapture data Common guillemot Common murre Survival model Article 2019 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220/1 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5385 2020-01-01T16:29:12Z Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multi-state models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years; and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on non-focal-species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management. Article in Journal/Newspaper common guillemot Common Murre Uria aalge uria Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
op_collection_id |
ftdryad |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Capture-recapture data Common guillemot Common murre Survival model |
spellingShingle |
Capture-recapture data Common guillemot Common murre Survival model Kadin, Martina Frederiksen, Morten Niiranen, Susa Converse, Sarah J. Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
topic_facet |
Capture-recapture data Common guillemot Common murre Survival model |
description |
Alternatives in ecosystem-based management often differ with respect to trade-offs between ecosystem values. Ecosystem or food-web models and demographic models are typically employed to evaluate alternatives, but the approaches are rarely integrated to uncover conflicts between values. We applied multi-state models to a capture-recapture dataset on common guillemots Uria aalge breeding in the Baltic Sea to identify factors influencing survival. The estimated relationships were employed together with Ecopath-with-Ecosim food-web model simulations to project guillemot survival under six future scenarios incorporating climate change. The scenarios were based on management alternatives for eutrophication and cod fisheries, issues considered top priority for regional management, but without known direct effects on the guillemot population. Our demographic models identified prey quantity (abundance and biomass of sprat Sprattus sprattus) as the main factor influencing guillemot survival. Most scenarios resulted in projections of increased survival, in the near (2016-2040) and distant (2060-2085) future. However, in the scenario of reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing, guillemot survival was projected to be lower in both future periods due to lower sprat stocks. Matrix population models suggested a substantial decline of the guillemot population in the near future, 24% per 10 years; and a smaller reduction, 1.1% per 10 years, in the distant future. To date, many stakeholders and Baltic Sea governments have supported reduced nutrient input and precautionary cod fishing and implementation is underway. Negative effects on non-focal-species have previously not been uncovered, but our results show that the scenario is likely to negatively impact the guillemot population. Linking model results allowed identifying trade-offs associated with management alternatives. This information is critical to thorough evaluation by decision-makers, but not easily obtained by food-web models or demographic models in isolation. Appropriate datasets are often available, making it feasible to apply a linked approach for better-informed decisions in ecosystem-based management. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kadin, Martina Frederiksen, Morten Niiranen, Susa Converse, Sarah J. |
author_facet |
Kadin, Martina Frederiksen, Morten Niiranen, Susa Converse, Sarah J. |
author_sort |
Kadin, Martina |
title |
Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
title_short |
Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
title_full |
Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
title_sort |
data from: linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.217637 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 |
op_coverage |
Baltic Sea |
genre |
common guillemot Common Murre Uria aalge uria |
genre_facet |
common guillemot Common Murre Uria aalge uria |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.b5n8220/1 doi:10.1002/ece3.5385 doi:10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 Kadin M, Frederiksen M, Niiranen S, Converse SJ (2019) Linking demographic and food‐web models to understand management trade‐offs. Ecology and Evolution. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.217637 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b5n8220/1 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5385 |
_version_ |
1766391499673567232 |