Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances
Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in out...
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ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.194673 2023-05-15T15:04:23+02:00 Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances Kleiven, Eivind F. Henden, John-André Ims, Rolf A. Yoccoz, Nigel G. 2018-10-18T15:18:53Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.194673 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p/1 doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33443-6 doi:10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p Kleiven EF, Henden J, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG (2018) Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances. Scientific Reports 8(1): 15252. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.194673 Article 2018 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p/1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33443-6 2020-01-01T16:17:08Z Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models’ potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Norwegian lemming Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) Arctic |
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Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
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Ecological models have been criticized for a lack of validation of their temporal transferability. Here we answer this call by investigating the temporal transferability of a dynamic state-space model developed to estimate season-dependent biotic and climatic predictors of spatial variability in outbreak abundance of the Norwegian lemming. Modelled summer and winter dynamics parametrized by spatial trapping data from one cyclic outbreak were validated with data from a subsequent outbreak. There was a distinct difference in model transferability between seasons. Summer dynamics had good temporal transferability, displaying ecological models’ potential to be temporally transferable. However, the winter dynamics transferred poorly. This discrepancy is likely due to a temporal inconsistency in the ability of the climate predictor (i.e. elevation) to reflect the winter conditions affecting lemmings both directly and indirectly. We conclude that there is an urgent need for data and models that yield better predictions of winter processes, in particular in face of the expected rapid climate change in the Arctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kleiven, Eivind F. Henden, John-André Ims, Rolf A. Yoccoz, Nigel G. |
spellingShingle |
Kleiven, Eivind F. Henden, John-André Ims, Rolf A. Yoccoz, Nigel G. Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
author_facet |
Kleiven, Eivind F. Henden, John-André Ims, Rolf A. Yoccoz, Nigel G. |
author_sort |
Kleiven, Eivind F. |
title |
Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
title_short |
Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
title_full |
Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
title_sort |
data from: seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.194673 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Norwegian lemming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Norwegian lemming |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p/1 doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33443-6 doi:10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p Kleiven EF, Henden J, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG (2018) Seasonal difference in temporal transferability of an ecological model: near-term predictions of lemming outbreak abundances. Scientific Reports 8(1): 15252. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.194673 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.4j4t81p/1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33443-6 |
_version_ |
1766336169512009728 |