Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar
1.Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporated as individual states (e.g., age, size, breeding status) in population models. However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, due to unmeasurable genetic, maternal, or environmental fac...
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ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.154130 2023-05-15T13:57:22+02:00 Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise M. Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Southern Hemisphere historical 2017-09-12T20:16:27Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.154130 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05 unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.j6q05/1 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12752 doi:10.5061/dryad.j6q05 Jenouvrier S, Aubry LM, Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H, Caswell H (2017) Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar. Journal of Animal Ecology 87(1): 212-222. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.154130 Frailty Individual quality Latent Life expectancy Life time reproductive success Article 2017 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 2020-01-01T15:55:18Z 1.Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporated as individual states (e.g., age, size, breeding status) in population models. However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, due to unmeasurable genetic, maternal, or environmental factors. 2.Such unobserved heterogeneity (UH) affects the behavior of heterogeneous cohorts via intra-cohort selection and contributes to inter-individual variance in demographic outcomes such as longevity and lifetime reproduction. Variance is also produced by individual stochasticity, due to random events in the life cycle of wild organisms, yet no study thus far has attempted to decompose the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity for an animal population in the wild. 3.We developed a stage-classified matrix population model for the Southern fulmar breeding on Ile des Pétrels, Antarctica. We applied multi-event, multi-state markrecapture methods to estimate a finite mixture model accounting for UH in all vital rates and Markov chain methods to calculate demographic outcomes. Finally, we partitioned the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity. 4.We identify three UH groups, differing substantially in longevity, lifetime reproductive output, age at first reproduction, and in the proportion of the life spent in each reproductive state. 14% of individuals at fledging have a delayed but high probability of recruitment and extended reproductive lifespan. 67% of individuals are less likely to reach adulthood, recruit late and skip breeding often but have the highest adult survival rate. 19% of individuals recruit early and attempt to breed often. They are likely to raise their offspring successfully, but experience a relatively short lifespan. Unobserved heterogeneity only explains a small fraction of the variances in longevity (5.9%), age at first reproduction (3.7%) and lifetime reproduction (22%). 5.UH can affect the entire life cycle, including survival, development, and reproductive rates, with consequences over the lifetime of individuals and impacts on cohort dynamics. The respective role of unobserved heterogeneity versus individual stochasticity varies greatly among demographic outcomes. We discuss the implication of our finding for the gradient of life-history strategies observed among species and argue that individual differences should always be accounted for in demographic studies of wild populations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) Fulmar ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) Pétrels ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) Ile des Pétrels ENVELOPE(140.010,140.010,-66.665,-66.665) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
op_collection_id |
ftdryad |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Frailty Individual quality Latent Life expectancy Life time reproductive success |
spellingShingle |
Frailty Individual quality Latent Life expectancy Life time reproductive success Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise M. Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
topic_facet |
Frailty Individual quality Latent Life expectancy Life time reproductive success |
description |
1.Individuals are heterogeneous in many ways. Some of these differences are incorporated as individual states (e.g., age, size, breeding status) in population models. However, substantial amounts of heterogeneity may remain unaccounted for, due to unmeasurable genetic, maternal, or environmental factors. 2.Such unobserved heterogeneity (UH) affects the behavior of heterogeneous cohorts via intra-cohort selection and contributes to inter-individual variance in demographic outcomes such as longevity and lifetime reproduction. Variance is also produced by individual stochasticity, due to random events in the life cycle of wild organisms, yet no study thus far has attempted to decompose the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity for an animal population in the wild. 3.We developed a stage-classified matrix population model for the Southern fulmar breeding on Ile des Pétrels, Antarctica. We applied multi-event, multi-state markrecapture methods to estimate a finite mixture model accounting for UH in all vital rates and Markov chain methods to calculate demographic outcomes. Finally, we partitioned the variance in demographic outcomes into contributions from unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity. 4.We identify three UH groups, differing substantially in longevity, lifetime reproductive output, age at first reproduction, and in the proportion of the life spent in each reproductive state. 14% of individuals at fledging have a delayed but high probability of recruitment and extended reproductive lifespan. 67% of individuals are less likely to reach adulthood, recruit late and skip breeding often but have the highest adult survival rate. 19% of individuals recruit early and attempt to breed often. They are likely to raise their offspring successfully, but experience a relatively short lifespan. Unobserved heterogeneity only explains a small fraction of the variances in longevity (5.9%), age at first reproduction (3.7%) and lifetime reproduction (22%). 5.UH can affect the entire life cycle, including survival, development, and reproductive rates, with consequences over the lifetime of individuals and impacts on cohort dynamics. The respective role of unobserved heterogeneity versus individual stochasticity varies greatly among demographic outcomes. We discuss the implication of our finding for the gradient of life-history strategies observed among species and argue that individual differences should always be accounted for in demographic studies of wild populations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise M. Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Aubry, Lise M. Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie |
title |
Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
title_short |
Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
title_full |
Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the Southern fulmar |
title_sort |
data from: interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life-history of the southern fulmar |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.154130 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05 |
op_coverage |
Southern Hemisphere historical |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-46.016,-46.016,-60.616,-60.616) ENVELOPE(140.017,140.017,-66.667,-66.667) ENVELOPE(140.010,140.010,-66.665,-66.665) |
geographic |
Fulmar Pétrels Ile des Pétrels |
geographic_facet |
Fulmar Pétrels Ile des Pétrels |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.j6q05/1 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12752 doi:10.5061/dryad.j6q05 Jenouvrier S, Aubry LM, Barbraud C, Weimerskirch H, Caswell H (2017) Interacting effects of unobserved heterogeneity and individual stochasticity in the life history of the southern fulmar. Journal of Animal Ecology 87(1): 212-222. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.154130 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.j6q05/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12752 |
_version_ |
1766265045529919488 |