Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change
Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large sea...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.140641 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217 |
id |
ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.140641 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.140641 2023-05-15T16:19:44+02:00 Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change Krüger, L. Ramos, J. A. Xavier, J. C. Grémillet, D. González-Solís, J. Petry, M. V. Phillips, R. A. Wanless, R. M. Paiva, V. H. Krüger, Lucas Southern Hemisphere Oceans 2017-03-16T14:18:32Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.140641 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217 unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.b4217/1 doi:10.1111/ecog.02590 doi:10.5061/dryad.b4217 Krüger L, Ramos JA, Xavier JC, Grémillet D, González-Solís J, Petry MV, Phillips RA, Wanless RM, Paiva VH (2017) Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change. Ecography 41(1): 195-208. 0906-7590 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.140641 Geographic Information System Representative Concentration Pathways Seabirds Species Distribution Modelling Tracking Article 2017 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02590 2020-01-01T15:48:04Z Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (Black-browed Albatross Thalassarche melanophris, Grey-headed Albatross T. chrysostoma, Northern Giant Petrel Macronectes halli, Southern Giant Petrel M. giganteus, Tristan Albatross Diomedea dabbenena Wandering Albatross D. exulans and White-chinned Petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis , and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high-bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble Species Distribution Models. We then project these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that are already over-fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase their overlap with fisheries where there is a high-bycatch risk. Under such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and increases in bycatch risk will require much-improved fisheries management in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline. Article in Journal/Newspaper Giant Petrel Southern Ocean Wandering Albatross Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) Southern Ocean Tristan ENVELOPE(140.900,140.900,-66.735,-66.735) Giganteus ENVELOPE(62.500,62.500,-67.567,-67.567) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
op_collection_id |
ftdryad |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Geographic Information System Representative Concentration Pathways Seabirds Species Distribution Modelling Tracking |
spellingShingle |
Geographic Information System Representative Concentration Pathways Seabirds Species Distribution Modelling Tracking Krüger, L. Ramos, J. A. Xavier, J. C. Grémillet, D. González-Solís, J. Petry, M. V. Phillips, R. A. Wanless, R. M. Paiva, V. H. Krüger, Lucas Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
topic_facet |
Geographic Information System Representative Concentration Pathways Seabirds Species Distribution Modelling Tracking |
description |
Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (Black-browed Albatross Thalassarche melanophris, Grey-headed Albatross T. chrysostoma, Northern Giant Petrel Macronectes halli, Southern Giant Petrel M. giganteus, Tristan Albatross Diomedea dabbenena Wandering Albatross D. exulans and White-chinned Petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis , and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high-bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble Species Distribution Models. We then project these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that are already over-fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase their overlap with fisheries where there is a high-bycatch risk. Under such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and increases in bycatch risk will require much-improved fisheries management in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Krüger, L. Ramos, J. A. Xavier, J. C. Grémillet, D. González-Solís, J. Petry, M. V. Phillips, R. A. Wanless, R. M. Paiva, V. H. Krüger, Lucas |
author_facet |
Krüger, L. Ramos, J. A. Xavier, J. C. Grémillet, D. González-Solís, J. Petry, M. V. Phillips, R. A. Wanless, R. M. Paiva, V. H. Krüger, Lucas |
author_sort |
Krüger, L. |
title |
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
title_short |
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
title_full |
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
title_sort |
data from: projected distributions of southern ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.140641 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217 |
op_coverage |
Southern Hemisphere Oceans |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.900,140.900,-66.735,-66.735) ENVELOPE(62.500,62.500,-67.567,-67.567) |
geographic |
Southern Ocean Tristan Giganteus |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean Tristan Giganteus |
genre |
Giant Petrel Southern Ocean Wandering Albatross |
genre_facet |
Giant Petrel Southern Ocean Wandering Albatross |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.b4217/1 doi:10.1111/ecog.02590 doi:10.5061/dryad.b4217 Krüger L, Ramos JA, Xavier JC, Grémillet D, González-Solís J, Petry MV, Phillips RA, Wanless RM, Paiva VH (2017) Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change. Ecography 41(1): 195-208. 0906-7590 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.140641 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.b4217/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02590 |
_version_ |
1766006137495224320 |