Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction
Most previous work on the Signor-Lipps effect has focused on testing whether taxa in a mass extinction went extinct simultaneously or gradually. However, many authors have proposed scenarios in which taxa go extinct in distinct pulses. Little methodology has been developed for quantifying characteri...
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ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.121811 2023-05-15T13:31:23+02:00 Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction Wang, Steve C. Zhong, Ling Antarctica Cretaceous Maastrichtian 2016-07-22T14:17:06Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.121811 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k/1 doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k/2 doi:10.1017/pab.2016.30 doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k Wang SC, Zhong L (2018) Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction. Paleobiology 44(02): 199-218. 0094-8373 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.121811 mass extinction pulsed extinction Signor-Lipps effect Article 2016 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k/1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k/2 https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2016.30 2020-01-01T15:38:05Z Most previous work on the Signor-Lipps effect has focused on testing whether taxa in a mass extinction went extinct simultaneously or gradually. However, many authors have proposed scenarios in which taxa go extinct in distinct pulses. Little methodology has been developed for quantifying characteristics of such pulsed extinction events. Here we introduce a method for estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction, based on the positions of fossil occurrences in a stratigraphic section. Rather than using a hypothesis test and assuming simultaneous extinction as the default, we reframe the question by asking what number of pulses best explains the observed fossil record. Using a two-step algorithm, we are able to estimate not just the number of extinction pulses, but also a confidence level or posterior probability for each possible number of pulses. In the first step, we find the maximum likelihood estimate for each possible number of pulses. In the second step, we calculate the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) weights for each possible number of pulses, and then apply a k-Nearest Neighbor classifier to these weights. This gives us a vector of confidence levels for the number of extinction pulses — for instance, we might be 80% confident that there was a single extinction pulse, 15% confident that there were two pulses, and 5% confidence that there were three pulses. Equivalently, we can state that we are 95% confidence that the number of extinction pulses is 1 or 2. Using simulation studies, we show that the method performs well in a variety of situations, although it has difficulty in the case of decreasing fossil recovery potential, and it is most effective for small numbers of pulses unless the sample size is large. We demonstrate the method using a dataset of Late Cretaceous ammonites. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
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Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
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topic |
mass extinction pulsed extinction Signor-Lipps effect |
spellingShingle |
mass extinction pulsed extinction Signor-Lipps effect Wang, Steve C. Zhong, Ling Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
topic_facet |
mass extinction pulsed extinction Signor-Lipps effect |
description |
Most previous work on the Signor-Lipps effect has focused on testing whether taxa in a mass extinction went extinct simultaneously or gradually. However, many authors have proposed scenarios in which taxa go extinct in distinct pulses. Little methodology has been developed for quantifying characteristics of such pulsed extinction events. Here we introduce a method for estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction, based on the positions of fossil occurrences in a stratigraphic section. Rather than using a hypothesis test and assuming simultaneous extinction as the default, we reframe the question by asking what number of pulses best explains the observed fossil record. Using a two-step algorithm, we are able to estimate not just the number of extinction pulses, but also a confidence level or posterior probability for each possible number of pulses. In the first step, we find the maximum likelihood estimate for each possible number of pulses. In the second step, we calculate the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) weights for each possible number of pulses, and then apply a k-Nearest Neighbor classifier to these weights. This gives us a vector of confidence levels for the number of extinction pulses — for instance, we might be 80% confident that there was a single extinction pulse, 15% confident that there were two pulses, and 5% confidence that there were three pulses. Equivalently, we can state that we are 95% confidence that the number of extinction pulses is 1 or 2. Using simulation studies, we show that the method performs well in a variety of situations, although it has difficulty in the case of decreasing fossil recovery potential, and it is most effective for small numbers of pulses unless the sample size is large. We demonstrate the method using a dataset of Late Cretaceous ammonites. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wang, Steve C. Zhong, Ling |
author_facet |
Wang, Steve C. Zhong, Ling |
author_sort |
Wang, Steve C. |
title |
Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
title_short |
Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
title_full |
Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
title_sort |
data from: estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.121811 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k |
op_coverage |
Antarctica Cretaceous Maastrichtian |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k/1 doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k/2 doi:10.1017/pab.2016.30 doi:10.5061/dryad.cj38k Wang SC, Zhong L (2018) Estimating the number of pulses in a mass extinction. Paleobiology 44(02): 199-218. 0094-8373 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.121811 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k/1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cj38k/2 https://doi.org/10.1017/pab.2016.30 |
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1766017854146084864 |