Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change
Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal v...
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ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.113520 2023-05-15T15:14:44+02:00 Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change Young, Adam M. Higuera, Philip E. Duffy, Paul A. Hu, Feng Sheng Alaska 1950-2009 2009-2100 2016-05-26T12:21:39Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.113520 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/1 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/2 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/3 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/4 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/5 doi:10.1111/ecog.02205 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r Young AM, Higuera PE, Duffy PA, Hu FS (2017) Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change. Ecography, online in advance of print. 0906-7590 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.113520 boreal forest tundra Article 2016 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/2 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/3 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/4 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/5 https://doi.org/1 2020-01-01T15:33:32Z Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire-regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30-yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P-PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire-regime responses to 21st-century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st-century climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) Arctic |
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Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
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boreal forest tundra |
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boreal forest tundra Young, Adam M. Higuera, Philip E. Duffy, Paul A. Hu, Feng Sheng Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
topic_facet |
boreal forest tundra |
description |
Boreal forests and arctic tundra cover 33% of global land area and store an estimated 50% of total soil carbon. Because wildfire is a key driver of terrestrial carbon cycling, increasing fire activity in these ecosystems would likely have global implications. To anticipate potential spatiotemporal variability in fire-regime shifts, we modeled the spatially explicit 30-yr probability of fire occurrence as a function of climate and landscape features (i.e. vegetation and topography) across Alaska. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models captured the spatial distribution of fire across boreal forest and tundra ecoregions (AUC from 0.63–0.78 and Pearson correlations between predicted and observed data from 0.54–0.71), highlighting summer temperature and annual moisture availability as the most influential controls of historical fire regimes. Modeled fire–climate relationships revealed distinct thresholds to fire occurrence, with a nonlinear increase in the probability of fire above an average July temperature of 13.4°C and below an annual moisture availability (i.e. P-PET) of approximately 150 mm. To anticipate potential fire-regime responses to 21st-century climate change, we informed our BRTs with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Based on these projected climatic changes alone (i.e. not accounting for potential changes in vegetation), our results suggest an increasing probability of wildfire in Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, but of varying magnitude across space and throughout the 21st century. Regions with historically low flammability, including tundra and the forest–tundra boundary, are particularly vulnerable to climatically induced changes in fire activity, with up to a fourfold increase in the 30-yr probability of fire occurrence by 2100. Our results underscore the climatic potential for novel fire regimes to develop in these ecosystems, relative to the past 6000–35 000 yr, and spatial variability in the vulnerability of wildfire regimes and associated ecological processes to 21st-century climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Young, Adam M. Higuera, Philip E. Duffy, Paul A. Hu, Feng Sheng |
author_facet |
Young, Adam M. Higuera, Philip E. Duffy, Paul A. Hu, Feng Sheng |
author_sort |
Young, Adam M. |
title |
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
title_short |
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
title_full |
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
title_sort |
data from: climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.113520 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r |
op_coverage |
Alaska 1950-2009 2009-2100 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Tundra Alaska |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/1 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/2 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/3 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/4 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r/5 doi:10.1111/ecog.02205 doi:10.5061/dryad.r217r Young AM, Higuera PE, Duffy PA, Hu FS (2017) Climatic thresholds shape northern high-latitude fire regimes and imply vulnerability to future climate change. Ecography, online in advance of print. 0906-7590 http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.113520 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/1 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/2 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/3 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/4 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r217r/5 https://doi.org/1 |
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1766345154457763840 |