Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival
1. Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence can be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater infl...
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ftdryad:oai:v1.datadryad.org:10255/dryad.101460 2023-05-15T17:22:54+02:00 Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume Schaefer, James A. Lewis, Keith P. Mumma, Matthew Ellington, E. Hance Rayl, Nathaniel D. Mahoney, Shane P. Pouliot, Darren Murray, Dennis L. 2015-11-05T02:00:15Z http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.101460 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78 unknown doi:10.5061/dryad.5dj78/1 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12466 PMID:26529139 doi:10.5061/dryad.5dj78 Bastille-Rousseau G, Schaefer JA, Lewis KP, Mumma M, Ellington EH, Rayl ND, Mahoney SP, Pouliot D, Murray DL (2016) Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival. Journal of Animal Ecology 85(2): 445–456. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.101460 Black bear cause-specific survival analysis climate-predator interactions conservation biology coyote caribou population dynamics Article 2015 ftdryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12466 2020-01-01T15:26:51Z 1. Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence can be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. 2. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause specific mortality, and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). 3. We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. 4. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. 5. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Newfoundland Rangifer tarandus Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Dryad Digital Repository (Duke University) |
op_collection_id |
ftdryad |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Black bear cause-specific survival analysis climate-predator interactions conservation biology coyote caribou population dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Black bear cause-specific survival analysis climate-predator interactions conservation biology coyote caribou population dynamics Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume Schaefer, James A. Lewis, Keith P. Mumma, Matthew Ellington, E. Hance Rayl, Nathaniel D. Mahoney, Shane P. Pouliot, Darren Murray, Dennis L. Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
topic_facet |
Black bear cause-specific survival analysis climate-predator interactions conservation biology coyote caribou population dynamics |
description |
1. Climate can have direct and indirect effects on population dynamics via changes in resource competition or predation risk, but this influence can be modulated by density- or phase-dependent processes. We hypothesized that for ungulates, climatic conditions close to parturition have a greater influence on the predation risk of neonates during population declines, when females are already under nutritional stress triggered by food limitation. 2. We examined the presence of phase-dependent climate-predator interactions on neonatal ungulate survival by comparing spatial and temporal fluctuations in climatic conditions, cause specific mortality, and per capita resource limitation. We determined cause-specific fates of 1384 caribou (Rangifer tarandus) from 10 herds in Newfoundland, spanning more than 30 years during periods of numerical increase and decline, while exposed to predation from black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans). 3. We conducted Cox proportional hazards analysis for competing risks, fit as a function of weather metrics, to assess pre- and post-partum climatic influences on survival on herds in population increase and decline phases. We used cumulative incidence functions to compare temporal changes in risk from predators. 4. Our results support our main hypothesis; when caribou populations increased, weather conditions preceding calving were the main determinants of cause-specific mortality, but when populations declined, weather conditions during calving also influenced predator-driven mortality. Cause-specific analysis showed that weather conditions can differentially affect predation risk between black bears and coyotes with specific variables increasing the risk from one species and decreasing the risk from the other. 5. For caribou, nutritional stress appears to increase predation risk on neonates, an interaction which is exacerbated by susceptibility to climatic events. These findings support the phase-dependent climate-predator (PDCP) interactions framework, where maternal body condition influences susceptibility to climate-related events and, subsequently, risk from predation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume Schaefer, James A. Lewis, Keith P. Mumma, Matthew Ellington, E. Hance Rayl, Nathaniel D. Mahoney, Shane P. Pouliot, Darren Murray, Dennis L. |
author_facet |
Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume Schaefer, James A. Lewis, Keith P. Mumma, Matthew Ellington, E. Hance Rayl, Nathaniel D. Mahoney, Shane P. Pouliot, Darren Murray, Dennis L. |
author_sort |
Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume |
title |
Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
title_short |
Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
title_full |
Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
title_sort |
data from: phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.101460 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78 |
genre |
Newfoundland Rangifer tarandus |
genre_facet |
Newfoundland Rangifer tarandus |
op_relation |
doi:10.5061/dryad.5dj78/1 doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12466 PMID:26529139 doi:10.5061/dryad.5dj78 Bastille-Rousseau G, Schaefer JA, Lewis KP, Mumma M, Ellington EH, Rayl ND, Mahoney SP, Pouliot D, Murray DL (2016) Phase-dependent climate-predator interactions explain three decades of variation in neonatal caribou survival. Journal of Animal Ecology 85(2): 445–456. http://hdl.handle.net/10255/dryad.101460 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.5dj78/1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12466 |
_version_ |
1766109816882724864 |