Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system
Abstract Britain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supp...
Published in: | Meteorological Applications |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/article/ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 2024-09-15T18:23:43+00:00 Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system Lucie J. Lücke Chris J. Dent Gabriele C. Hegerl Amy L. Wilson Andrew P. Schurer 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/article/ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/toc/1350-4827 https://doaj.org/toc/1469-8080 1469-8080 1350-4827 doi:10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/article/ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 Meteorological Applications, Vol 31, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) British power system climate energy extreme events renewable energy wind energy Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 2024-09-02T15:34:39Z Abstract Britain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias‐corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature‐related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather‐related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present‐day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short‐lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Meteorological Applications 31 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
British power system climate energy extreme events renewable energy wind energy Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
British power system climate energy extreme events renewable energy wind energy Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Lucie J. Lücke Chris J. Dent Gabriele C. Hegerl Amy L. Wilson Andrew P. Schurer Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
topic_facet |
British power system climate energy extreme events renewable energy wind energy Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Britain's power system has shifted towards a major contribution from wind energy. However, wind is highly variable, and exceptionally low wind events can simultaneously occur with cold conditions, which increase demand. These conditions can pose a threat for the security of energy supply. Here we use bias‐corrected wind supply data and the estimated temperature‐related part of demand to analyse events of potential weather‐related energy shortfall based on the historic meteorological record. We conduct sensitivity studies with varying scenarios of Britain's total wind energy capacity and the temperature sensitivity of national demand. These scenarios are estimates for present‐day conditions as well as potential future changes of the power system. We apply a new methodology to estimate the potential severity of an event for the power system, and analyse the atmospheric conditions associated with the most severe events. We find that events of potentially severe shortfall are relatively rare and short‐lived, and often occur with an atmospheric pattern broadly resembling a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. This broad tendency emerges from a wide range of individual daily weather patterns that cause cold and still conditions. With an increase in wind capacity, it is likely that severe events will become rarer, although the most severe days of the record are relatively insensitive to changes in wind supply and temperature sensitivity of demand under our assumptions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lucie J. Lücke Chris J. Dent Gabriele C. Hegerl Amy L. Wilson Andrew P. Schurer |
author_facet |
Lucie J. Lücke Chris J. Dent Gabriele C. Hegerl Amy L. Wilson Andrew P. Schurer |
author_sort |
Lucie J. Lücke |
title |
Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
title_short |
Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
title_full |
Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
title_fullStr |
Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
title_full_unstemmed |
Severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the British power system |
title_sort |
severe compound events of low wind and cold temperature for the british power system |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/article/ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Meteorological Applications, Vol 31, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/toc/1350-4827 https://doaj.org/toc/1469-8080 1469-8080 1350-4827 doi:10.1002/met.2219 https://doaj.org/article/ff8c82ae00a0471facedd93094d46094 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2219 |
container_title |
Meteorological Applications |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1810463978523983872 |