Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.
Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission....
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 https://doaj.org/article/ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 2023-05-15T15:08:19+02:00 Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. Amir S Siraj Rachel J Oidtman John H Huber Moritz U G Kraemer Oliver J Brady Michael A Johansson T Alex Perkins 2017-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 https://doaj.org/article/ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5536440?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 https://doaj.org/article/ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0005797 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 2022-12-31T14:13:21Z Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 7 e0005797 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Amir S Siraj Rachel J Oidtman John H Huber Moritz U G Kraemer Oliver J Brady Michael A Johansson T Alex Perkins Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r. Our results show that the generation interval is highly sensitive to temperature, decreasing twofold between 25 and 35°C and suggesting that dengue virus epidemics may accelerate as temperatures increase, not only because of more infections per generation but also because of faster generations. Under the empirical temperature relationships that we considered, we found that r peaked at a temperature threshold that was robust to uncertainty in model parameters that do not depend on temperature. Although the precise value of this temperature threshold could be refined following future studies of empirical temperature relationships, the framework we present for identifying such temperature thresholds offers a new way to classify regions in which dengue virus epidemic intensity could either increase or decrease under future climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Amir S Siraj Rachel J Oidtman John H Huber Moritz U G Kraemer Oliver J Brady Michael A Johansson T Alex Perkins |
author_facet |
Amir S Siraj Rachel J Oidtman John H Huber Moritz U G Kraemer Oliver J Brady Michael A Johansson T Alex Perkins |
author_sort |
Amir S Siraj |
title |
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
title_short |
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
title_full |
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
title_fullStr |
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
title_sort |
temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 https://doaj.org/article/ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0005797 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5536440?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 https://doaj.org/article/ff37422fbbdf4296a1f460a66a4f1a03 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005797 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e0005797 |
_version_ |
1766339698508169216 |