Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

• Published in: Earth System Dynamics
• Main Authors: N. S. Lovenduski, S. G. Yeager, K. Lindsay, M. C. Long
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Copernicus Publications 2019
• Subjects: Science; Q; Geology; QE1-996.5; Dynamic and structural geology; QE500-639.5; Southern Ocean; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-45-2019; https://doaj.org/article/ff29b4d3ad5049199a9adaf4468f4201

Interannual variations in air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) impact the global carbon cycle and climate system, and previous studies suggest that these variations may be predictable in the near term (from a year to a decade in advance). Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term predictability and predictive skill in air–sea CO 2 flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model. These forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air–sea CO 2 flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of the forecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO 2 flux evolution. This potential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with the longest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic. Potential predictability in CO 2 flux variations is largely driven by predictability in the surface ocean partial pressure of CO 2 , which itself is a function of predictability in surface ocean dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. The potential predictability, however, is not realized as predictive skill, as indicated by the moderate to low correlation of the forecasts with an observationally based CO 2 flux product. Nevertheless, our results suggest that year-to-year variations in ocean carbon uptake have the potential to be predicted well in advance and establish a precedent for forecasting air–sea CO 2 flux in the near future.