Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011
In the aftermath of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn’s eruption on 21 May 2011, volcanic ash reached Northern Europe. Elevated levels of ambient particles (PM) were registered in mid Sweden. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the Grimsvötn eruption had an effect on mortality in Sweden...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fe2ec73867a0478aa6ce98c026ada461 2023-05-15T16:52:56+02:00 Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 Anna Oudin Hanne K. Carlsen Bertil Forsberg Christer Johansson 2013-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10126909 https://doaj.org/article/fe2ec73867a0478aa6ce98c026ada461 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/12/6909 https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 1660-4601 doi:10.3390/ijerph10126909 https://doaj.org/article/fe2ec73867a0478aa6ce98c026ada461 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 10, Iss 12, Pp 6909-6919 (2013) air pollution particulate matter volcano mortality ash Iceland Grimsvötn Medicine R article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10126909 2022-12-31T16:01:02Z In the aftermath of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn’s eruption on 21 May 2011, volcanic ash reached Northern Europe. Elevated levels of ambient particles (PM) were registered in mid Sweden. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the Grimsvötn eruption had an effect on mortality in Sweden. Based on PM measurements at 16 sites across Sweden, data were classified into an ash exposed data set (Ash area) and an unexposed data set (No ash area). Data on daily all-cause mortality were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the time period 1 April through 31 July 2011. Mortality ratios were calculated as the ratio between the daily number of deaths in the Ash area and the No ash area. The exposure period was defined as the week following the days with elevated particle concentrations, namely 24 May through 31 May. The control period was defined as 1 April through 23 May and 1 June through 31 July. There was no absolute increase in mortality during the exposure period. However, during the exposure period the mean mortality ratio was 2.42 compared with 2.17 during the control period, implying a relatively higher number of deaths in the Ash area than in the No ash area. The differences in ratios were mostly due to a single day, 31 May, and were not statistically significant when tested with a Mann-Whitney non-parametric test (p > 0.3). The statistical power was low with only 8 days in the exposure period (24 May through 31 May). Assuming that the observed relative differences were not due to chance, the results would imply an increase of 128 deaths during the exposure period 24–31 May. If 31 May was excluded, the number of extra deaths was reduced to 20. The results of the present study are contradicting and inconclusive, but may indicate that all-cause mortality was increased by the ash-fall from the Grimsvötn eruption. Meta-analysis or pooled analysis of data from neighboring countries might make it possible to reach sufficient statistical power to study effects of the Grimsvötn ash on morbidity and ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 10 12 6909 6919 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
air pollution particulate matter volcano mortality ash Iceland Grimsvötn Medicine R |
spellingShingle |
air pollution particulate matter volcano mortality ash Iceland Grimsvötn Medicine R Anna Oudin Hanne K. Carlsen Bertil Forsberg Christer Johansson Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
topic_facet |
air pollution particulate matter volcano mortality ash Iceland Grimsvötn Medicine R |
description |
In the aftermath of the Icelandic volcano Grimsvötn’s eruption on 21 May 2011, volcanic ash reached Northern Europe. Elevated levels of ambient particles (PM) were registered in mid Sweden. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the Grimsvötn eruption had an effect on mortality in Sweden. Based on PM measurements at 16 sites across Sweden, data were classified into an ash exposed data set (Ash area) and an unexposed data set (No ash area). Data on daily all-cause mortality were obtained from Statistics Sweden for the time period 1 April through 31 July 2011. Mortality ratios were calculated as the ratio between the daily number of deaths in the Ash area and the No ash area. The exposure period was defined as the week following the days with elevated particle concentrations, namely 24 May through 31 May. The control period was defined as 1 April through 23 May and 1 June through 31 July. There was no absolute increase in mortality during the exposure period. However, during the exposure period the mean mortality ratio was 2.42 compared with 2.17 during the control period, implying a relatively higher number of deaths in the Ash area than in the No ash area. The differences in ratios were mostly due to a single day, 31 May, and were not statistically significant when tested with a Mann-Whitney non-parametric test (p > 0.3). The statistical power was low with only 8 days in the exposure period (24 May through 31 May). Assuming that the observed relative differences were not due to chance, the results would imply an increase of 128 deaths during the exposure period 24–31 May. If 31 May was excluded, the number of extra deaths was reduced to 20. The results of the present study are contradicting and inconclusive, but may indicate that all-cause mortality was increased by the ash-fall from the Grimsvötn eruption. Meta-analysis or pooled analysis of data from neighboring countries might make it possible to reach sufficient statistical power to study effects of the Grimsvötn ash on morbidity and ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anna Oudin Hanne K. Carlsen Bertil Forsberg Christer Johansson |
author_facet |
Anna Oudin Hanne K. Carlsen Bertil Forsberg Christer Johansson |
author_sort |
Anna Oudin |
title |
Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
title_short |
Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
title_full |
Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
title_fullStr |
Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Volcanic Ash and Daily Mortality in Sweden after the Icelandic Volcano Eruption of May 2011 |
title_sort |
volcanic ash and daily mortality in sweden after the icelandic volcano eruption of may 2011 |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10126909 https://doaj.org/article/fe2ec73867a0478aa6ce98c026ada461 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_source |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol 10, Iss 12, Pp 6909-6919 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/10/12/6909 https://doaj.org/toc/1660-4601 1660-4601 doi:10.3390/ijerph10126909 https://doaj.org/article/fe2ec73867a0478aa6ce98c026ada461 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10126909 |
container_title |
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
6909 |
op_container_end_page |
6919 |
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