The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss
There is great uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with some models predicting a shift towards the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while others predicting a more neutral NAO response. We investigate the potential role of systemat...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca https://doaj.org/article/fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 2024-09-15T18:23:53+00:00 The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss M Sigmond L Sun 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca https://doaj.org/article/fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 3, Iss 3, p 031002 (2024) climate Arctic sea ice loss model bias stratospheric pathway Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z There is great uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with some models predicting a shift towards the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while others predicting a more neutral NAO response. We investigate the potential role of systematic model biases in the spread of these responses by modifying the unperturbed (or ‘control’) climate (hereafter referred to as the ‘basic state’) of the Canadian Earth system model version 5 (CanESM5) in sea ice loss experiments based on the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the presence or absence of the stratospheric pathway in response to sea ice loss depends on the basic state, and that only the CanESM5 version that shows a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex features a strong negative NAO response. We propose a mechanism that explains this dependency, with a key role played by the vertical structure of the winds in the region between the subtropical jet and the stratospheric polar vortex (‘the neck region winds’), which determines the extent to which anomalous planetary wave activity in response to sea ice loss propagates away from the polar vortex. Our results suggest that differences in the models’ basic states could significantly contribute to model spread in the simulated atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, which may inform efforts to narrow the uncertainties regarding the impact of diminishing sea ice on mid-latitude climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research: Climate 3 3 031002 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate Arctic sea ice loss model bias stratospheric pathway Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
climate Arctic sea ice loss model bias stratospheric pathway Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 M Sigmond L Sun The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
climate Arctic sea ice loss model bias stratospheric pathway Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
There is great uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, with some models predicting a shift towards the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while others predicting a more neutral NAO response. We investigate the potential role of systematic model biases in the spread of these responses by modifying the unperturbed (or ‘control’) climate (hereafter referred to as the ‘basic state’) of the Canadian Earth system model version 5 (CanESM5) in sea ice loss experiments based on the protocol of the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the presence or absence of the stratospheric pathway in response to sea ice loss depends on the basic state, and that only the CanESM5 version that shows a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex features a strong negative NAO response. We propose a mechanism that explains this dependency, with a key role played by the vertical structure of the winds in the region between the subtropical jet and the stratospheric polar vortex (‘the neck region winds’), which determines the extent to which anomalous planetary wave activity in response to sea ice loss propagates away from the polar vortex. Our results suggest that differences in the models’ basic states could significantly contribute to model spread in the simulated atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, which may inform efforts to narrow the uncertainties regarding the impact of diminishing sea ice on mid-latitude climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M Sigmond L Sun |
author_facet |
M Sigmond L Sun |
author_sort |
M Sigmond |
title |
The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of the basic state in the climate response to future Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
role of the basic state in the climate response to future arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca https://doaj.org/article/fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research: Climate, Vol 3, Iss 3, p 031002 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca https://doaj.org/toc/2752-5295 doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca 2752-5295 https://doaj.org/article/fe1c44dcf30442b9ac86ff0e8d2a6874 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad44ca |
container_title |
Environmental Research: Climate |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
031002 |
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1810464169527345152 |