The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4
Data from a 500-year preindustrial control run of climate model INMCM4 show distinct climate variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic with a period of 35–50 years. The variability can be seen as anomalies of upper ocean density that appear in the Arctic and propagate to the North Atlantic. The d...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fdf823eec8854506a6e6bcc3977fadbb 2023-09-05T13:16:09+02:00 The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 E M Volodin 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 https://doaj.org/article/fdf823eec8854506a6e6bcc3977fadbb EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/fdf823eec8854506a6e6bcc3977fadbb Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 3, p 035038 (2013) Arctic North Atlantic multidecadal variability decadal prediction density thermal current Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 2023-08-13T00:37:28Z Data from a 500-year preindustrial control run of climate model INMCM4 show distinct climate variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic with a period of 35–50 years. The variability can be seen as anomalies of upper ocean density that appear in the Arctic and propagate to the North Atlantic. The density gradient in a northeast–southwest direction alternates with the density gradient in a northwest–southeast direction. A positive density anomaly in the Arctic is associated with a positive salinity anomaly, a positive surface temperature anomaly and a reduction of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The nature of the variability is a vertical advection of density by thermal currents similar to that proposed in Dijkstra et al (2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366 ). The cycle of model variability shows that after a negative anomaly of density in the northwest Atlantic, one should expect warming in the Arctic in 5–10 years. The ensemble of decadal predictions with climate model INMCM4 starting from 1995 shows that warming in the western Arctic and especially in the Barents Sea observed in 1996–2010 can be reproduced by eight of ten ensemble members. Arctic climate predictability in this case is associated with a proposed mechanism of a 35–50 year North Atlantic–Arctic oscillation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barents Sea Environmental Research Letters 8 3 035038 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic North Atlantic multidecadal variability decadal prediction density thermal current Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic North Atlantic multidecadal variability decadal prediction density thermal current Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 E M Volodin The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
topic_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic multidecadal variability decadal prediction density thermal current Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Data from a 500-year preindustrial control run of climate model INMCM4 show distinct climate variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic with a period of 35–50 years. The variability can be seen as anomalies of upper ocean density that appear in the Arctic and propagate to the North Atlantic. The density gradient in a northeast–southwest direction alternates with the density gradient in a northwest–southeast direction. A positive density anomaly in the Arctic is associated with a positive salinity anomaly, a positive surface temperature anomaly and a reduction of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The nature of the variability is a vertical advection of density by thermal currents similar to that proposed in Dijkstra et al (2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366 ). The cycle of model variability shows that after a negative anomaly of density in the northwest Atlantic, one should expect warming in the Arctic in 5–10 years. The ensemble of decadal predictions with climate model INMCM4 starting from 1995 shows that warming in the western Arctic and especially in the Barents Sea observed in 1996–2010 can be reproduced by eight of ten ensemble members. Arctic climate predictability in this case is associated with a proposed mechanism of a 35–50 year North Atlantic–Arctic oscillation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
E M Volodin |
author_facet |
E M Volodin |
author_sort |
E M Volodin |
title |
The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
title_short |
The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
title_full |
The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
title_fullStr |
The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4 |
title_sort |
mechanism of multidecadal variability in the arctic and north atlantic in climate model inmcm4 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 https://doaj.org/article/fdf823eec8854506a6e6bcc3977fadbb |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Northwest Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 8, Iss 3, p 035038 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/fdf823eec8854506a6e6bcc3977fadbb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035038 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
035038 |
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1776197846163259392 |