Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?
Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fd9304f4a958440d963294df0964b000 2024-01-07T09:43:18+01:00 Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? Christopher J. Hart Ryan P. Kelly Scott F. Pearson 2018-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 https://doaj.org/article/fd9304f4a958440d963294df0964b000 EN eng PeerJ Inc. https://peerj.com/articles/4519.pdf https://peerj.com/articles/4519/ https://doaj.org/toc/2167-8359 doi:10.7717/peerj.4519 2167-8359 https://doaj.org/article/fd9304f4a958440d963294df0964b000 PeerJ, Vol 6, p e4519 (2018) Endangered species act Conservation biology Climate change Tufted puffin Endangered species management Habitat loss Medicine R Biology (General) QH301-705.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 2023-12-10T01:49:56Z Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Article in Journal/Newspaper fratercula Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PeerJ 6 e4519 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Endangered species act Conservation biology Climate change Tufted puffin Endangered species management Habitat loss Medicine R Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
spellingShingle |
Endangered species act Conservation biology Climate change Tufted puffin Endangered species management Habitat loss Medicine R Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Christopher J. Hart Ryan P. Kelly Scott F. Pearson Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
topic_facet |
Endangered species act Conservation biology Climate change Tufted puffin Endangered species management Habitat loss Medicine R Biology (General) QH301-705.5 |
description |
Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christopher J. Hart Ryan P. Kelly Scott F. Pearson |
author_facet |
Christopher J. Hart Ryan P. Kelly Scott F. Pearson |
author_sort |
Christopher J. Hart |
title |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_short |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_fullStr |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_sort |
will the california current lose its nesting tufted puffins? |
publisher |
PeerJ Inc. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 https://doaj.org/article/fd9304f4a958440d963294df0964b000 |
genre |
fratercula |
genre_facet |
fratercula |
op_source |
PeerJ, Vol 6, p e4519 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://peerj.com/articles/4519.pdf https://peerj.com/articles/4519/ https://doaj.org/toc/2167-8359 doi:10.7717/peerj.4519 2167-8359 https://doaj.org/article/fd9304f4a958440d963294df0964b000 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 |
container_title |
PeerJ |
container_volume |
6 |
container_start_page |
e4519 |
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1787424565641609216 |