Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble
Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and lan...
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Cambridge University Press
2021
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fd150d17c711430184621f8cfb9fafd7 2023-05-15T15:08:10+02:00 Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble Ward J. J. van Pelt Thomas V. Schuler Veijo A. Pohjola Rickard Pettersson 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 https://doaj.org/article/fd150d17c711430184621f8cfb9fafd7 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021000022/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.2 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/fd150d17c711430184621f8cfb9fafd7 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 67, Pp 485-499 (2021) climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 2023-03-12T01:30:57Z Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Svalbard Journal of Glaciology 67 263 485 499 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ward J. J. van Pelt Thomas V. Schuler Veijo A. Pohjola Rickard Pettersson Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
topic_facet |
climate change glacier discharge glacier mass balance glacier modelling seasonal snow Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Projected climate warming and wettening will have a major impact on the state of glaciers and seasonal snow in High Arctic regions. Following up on a historical simulation (1957–2018) for Svalbard, we make future projections of glacier climatic mass balance (CMB), snow conditions on glaciers and land, and runoff, under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios for 2019–60. We find that the average CMB for Svalbard glaciers, which was weakly positive during 1957–2018, becomes negative at an accelerating rate during 2019–60 for both RCP scenarios. Modelled mass loss is most pronounced in southern Svalbard, where the equilibrium line altitude is predicted to rise well above the hypsometry peak, leading to the first occurrences of zero accumulation-area ratio already by the 2030s. In parallel with firn line retreat, the total pore volume in snow and firn drops by as much as 70–80% in 2060, compared to 2018. Total refreezing remains largely unchanged, despite a marked change in the seasonal pattern towards increased refreezing in winter. Finally, we find pronounced shortening of the snow season, while combined runoff from glaciers and land more than doubles from 1957–2018 to 2019–60, for both scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ward J. J. van Pelt Thomas V. Schuler Veijo A. Pohjola Rickard Pettersson |
author_facet |
Ward J. J. van Pelt Thomas V. Schuler Veijo A. Pohjola Rickard Pettersson |
author_sort |
Ward J. J. van Pelt |
title |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_short |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_full |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accelerating future mass loss of Svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
title_sort |
accelerating future mass loss of svalbard glaciers from a multi-model ensemble |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 https://doaj.org/article/fd150d17c711430184621f8cfb9fafd7 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change glacier Journal of Glaciology Svalbard |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 67, Pp 485-499 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143021000022/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2021.2 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/fd150d17c711430184621f8cfb9fafd7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2021.2 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
67 |
container_issue |
263 |
container_start_page |
485 |
op_container_end_page |
499 |
_version_ |
1766339578412662784 |