Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause dramatic changes to ecologically, culturally, and economically important coastal ecosystems. To date, MHW studies have focused on geographically isolated regions or broad-scale global oceanic analyses, without considering coastal biogeographical regions and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fc87a38144c14317860833b4fd2e181a 2023-05-15T15:10:15+02:00 Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms François Thoral Shinae Montie Mads S. Thomsen Leigh W. Tait Matthew H. Pinkerton David R. Schiel 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z https://doaj.org/article/fc87a38144c14317860833b4fd2e181a EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/fc87a38144c14317860833b4fd2e181a Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2022) Medicine R Science Q article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z 2022-12-30T21:45:51Z Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause dramatic changes to ecologically, culturally, and economically important coastal ecosystems. To date, MHW studies have focused on geographically isolated regions or broad-scale global oceanic analyses, without considering coastal biogeographical regions and seasons. However, to understand impacts from MHWs on diverse coastal communities, a combined biogeographical-seasonal approach is necessary, because (1) bioregions reflect community-wide temperature tolerances and (2) summer or winter heatwaves likely affect communities differently. We therefore carried out season-specific Theil–Sen robust linear regressions and Pettitt change point analyses from 1982 to 2021 on the number of events, number of MHW days, mean intensity, maximum intensity, and cumulative intensity of MHWs, for each of the world’s 12 major coastal biogeographical realms. We found that 70% of 240 trend analyses increased significantly, 5% decreased and 25% were unaffected. There were clear differences between trends in metrics within biogeographical regions, and among seasons. For the significant increases, most change points occurred between 1998 and 2006. Regression slopes were generally positive across MHW metrics, seasons, and biogeographical realms as well as being highest after change point detection. Trends were highest for the Arctic, Northern Pacific, and Northern Atlantic realms in summer, and lowest for the Southern Ocean and several equatorial realms in other seasons. Our analysis highlights that future case studies should incorporate break point changes and seasonality in MHW analysis, to increase our understanding of how future, more frequent, and stronger MHWs will affect coastal ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q François Thoral Shinae Montie Mads S. Thomsen Leigh W. Tait Matthew H. Pinkerton David R. Schiel Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause dramatic changes to ecologically, culturally, and economically important coastal ecosystems. To date, MHW studies have focused on geographically isolated regions or broad-scale global oceanic analyses, without considering coastal biogeographical regions and seasons. However, to understand impacts from MHWs on diverse coastal communities, a combined biogeographical-seasonal approach is necessary, because (1) bioregions reflect community-wide temperature tolerances and (2) summer or winter heatwaves likely affect communities differently. We therefore carried out season-specific Theil–Sen robust linear regressions and Pettitt change point analyses from 1982 to 2021 on the number of events, number of MHW days, mean intensity, maximum intensity, and cumulative intensity of MHWs, for each of the world’s 12 major coastal biogeographical realms. We found that 70% of 240 trend analyses increased significantly, 5% decreased and 25% were unaffected. There were clear differences between trends in metrics within biogeographical regions, and among seasons. For the significant increases, most change points occurred between 1998 and 2006. Regression slopes were generally positive across MHW metrics, seasons, and biogeographical realms as well as being highest after change point detection. Trends were highest for the Arctic, Northern Pacific, and Northern Atlantic realms in summer, and lowest for the Southern Ocean and several equatorial realms in other seasons. Our analysis highlights that future case studies should incorporate break point changes and seasonality in MHW analysis, to increase our understanding of how future, more frequent, and stronger MHWs will affect coastal ecosystems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
François Thoral Shinae Montie Mads S. Thomsen Leigh W. Tait Matthew H. Pinkerton David R. Schiel |
author_facet |
François Thoral Shinae Montie Mads S. Thomsen Leigh W. Tait Matthew H. Pinkerton David R. Schiel |
author_sort |
François Thoral |
title |
Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
title_short |
Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
title_full |
Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
title_fullStr |
Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
title_sort |
unravelling seasonal trends in coastal marine heatwave metrics across global biogeographical realms |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z https://doaj.org/article/fc87a38144c14317860833b4fd2e181a |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/fc87a38144c14317860833b4fd2e181a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11908-z |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766341297383145472 |