Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis
High mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds – the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fc051402863c4c6f9e1fa83f1a35de80 2023-05-15T17:36:10+02:00 Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis T. Maldonado E. Alfaro B. Fallas-López L. Alvarado 2013-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 https://doaj.org/article/fc051402863c4c6f9e1fa83f1a35de80 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.adv-geosci.net/33/41/2013/adgeo-33-41-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7340 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7359 1680-7340 1680-7359 doi:10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 https://doaj.org/article/fc051402863c4c6f9e1fa83f1a35de80 Advances in Geosciences, Vol 33, Pp 41-52 (2013) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 2022-12-31T02:45:46Z High mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds – the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two maxima, one in May–June and the other in August-September-October (ASO), separated by the mid-summer drought in July. A first maximum of deep convection activity, and hence a first maximum of precipitation, is reached when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 29 °C (around May). Then, the SST decreases to around 1 °C due to diminished downwelling solar radiation and stronger easterly winds (during July and August), resulting in a decrease in deep convection activity. Such a reduction in deep convection activity allows an increase in down welling solar radiation and a slight increase in SST (about 28.5 °C) by the end of August and early September, resulting once again in an enhanced deep convection activity, and, consequently, in a second maximum of precipitation. Most of the extreme events are found during ASO. Central American National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) have periodic Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) to elaborate seasonal predictions. Recently, meetings after RCOF with different socioeconomic stakeholders took place to translate the probable climate impacts from predictions. From the feedback processes of these meetings has emerged that extreme event and rainy days seasonal predictions are necessary for different sectors. As is shown in this work, these predictions can be tailored using Canonical Correlation Analysis for rain during ASO, showing that extreme events and rainy days in Central America are influenced by interannual variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and decadal variability associated mainly with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Analyzing the geographical distribution of the ASO-2010 disaster reports, we noticed that they did not necessarily agree with ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Advances in Geosciences 33 41 52 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 T. Maldonado E. Alfaro B. Fallas-López L. Alvarado Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
High mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds – the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two maxima, one in May–June and the other in August-September-October (ASO), separated by the mid-summer drought in July. A first maximum of deep convection activity, and hence a first maximum of precipitation, is reached when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 29 °C (around May). Then, the SST decreases to around 1 °C due to diminished downwelling solar radiation and stronger easterly winds (during July and August), resulting in a decrease in deep convection activity. Such a reduction in deep convection activity allows an increase in down welling solar radiation and a slight increase in SST (about 28.5 °C) by the end of August and early September, resulting once again in an enhanced deep convection activity, and, consequently, in a second maximum of precipitation. Most of the extreme events are found during ASO. Central American National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) have periodic Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) to elaborate seasonal predictions. Recently, meetings after RCOF with different socioeconomic stakeholders took place to translate the probable climate impacts from predictions. From the feedback processes of these meetings has emerged that extreme event and rainy days seasonal predictions are necessary for different sectors. As is shown in this work, these predictions can be tailored using Canonical Correlation Analysis for rain during ASO, showing that extreme events and rainy days in Central America are influenced by interannual variability related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and decadal variability associated mainly with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Analyzing the geographical distribution of the ASO-2010 disaster reports, we noticed that they did not necessarily agree with ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Maldonado E. Alfaro B. Fallas-López L. Alvarado |
author_facet |
T. Maldonado E. Alfaro B. Fallas-López L. Alvarado |
author_sort |
T. Maldonado |
title |
Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
title_short |
Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
title_full |
Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysis |
title_sort |
seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over costa rica, central america, using canonical correlation analysis |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 https://doaj.org/article/fc051402863c4c6f9e1fa83f1a35de80 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Advances in Geosciences, Vol 33, Pp 41-52 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.adv-geosci.net/33/41/2013/adgeo-33-41-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7340 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7359 1680-7340 1680-7359 doi:10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 https://doaj.org/article/fc051402863c4c6f9e1fa83f1a35de80 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013 |
container_title |
Advances in Geosciences |
container_volume |
33 |
container_start_page |
41 |
op_container_end_page |
52 |
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1766135560576958464 |