Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case
A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future inform...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fbf7eb51460d4b50898ec6d55c40bc49 2023-05-15T17:25:06+02:00 Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case Botechia Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos Daniel Rodrigues Barreto Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer Denis José 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/article/fbf7eb51460d4b50898ec6d55c40bc49 EN FR eng fre EDP Sciences https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/toc/1294-4475 https://doaj.org/toc/1953-8189 1294-4475 1953-8189 doi:10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/article/fbf7eb51460d4b50898ec6d55c40bc49 Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Vol 73, p 54 (2018) Chemical technology TP1-1185 Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 2022-12-31T15:55:38Z A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition. Article in Journal/Newspaper Norne field Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles 73 54 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English French |
topic |
Chemical technology TP1-1185 Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 |
spellingShingle |
Chemical technology TP1-1185 Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 Botechia Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos Daniel Rodrigues Barreto Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer Denis José Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
topic_facet |
Chemical technology TP1-1185 Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade HD9502-9502.5 |
description |
A key decision in field management is whether or not to acquire information to either improve project economics or reduce uncertainties. A widely spread technique to quantify the gain of information acquisition is Value of Information (VoI). However, estimating the possible outcomes of future information without the data is a complex task. While traditional VoI estimates are based on a single average value, the Chance of Success (CoS) methodology works as a diagnostic tool, estimating a range of possible outcomes that vary because of reservoir uncertainties. The objective of this work is to estimate the CoS of a 4D seismic before having the data, applied to a complex real case (Norne field). The objective is to assist the decision of whether, or not, to acquire further data. The methodology comprises the following steps: uncertainty quantification, selection of Representative Models (RMs), estimation of the acquisition period, production strategy optimization and, finally, quantification of the CoS. The estimates use numerical reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and uncertainty evaluation. We performed analyses considering perfect and imperfect information. We aim to verify the increment in economic return when the 4D data identifies the closest-to-reality reservoir model. While the traditional expected VoI calculation provides only an average value, this methodology has the advantage of considering the increase in the economic return due to reservoir uncertainties, characterized by different RMs. Our results showed that decreased reliability of information affected the decision of which production strategy to select. In our case, information reliability less than 70% is insufficient to change the perception of the uncertain reservoir and consequently decisions. Furthermore, when the reliability reached around 50%, the information lost value, as the economic return became similar to that of the case without information acquisition. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Botechia Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos Daniel Rodrigues Barreto Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer Denis José |
author_facet |
Botechia Vinicius Eduardo dos Santos Daniel Rodrigues Barreto Carlos Eduardo Andrade Gaspar Ana Teresa Ferreira da Silva Santos Susana Margarida da Graça Schiozer Denis José |
author_sort |
Botechia Vinicius Eduardo |
title |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_short |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_full |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the Norne benchmark case |
title_sort |
estimating the chance of success of information acquisition for the norne benchmark case |
publisher |
EDP Sciences |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/article/fbf7eb51460d4b50898ec6d55c40bc49 |
genre |
Norne field |
genre_facet |
Norne field |
op_source |
Oil & Gas Science and Technology, Vol 73, p 54 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/toc/1294-4475 https://doaj.org/toc/1953-8189 1294-4475 1953-8189 doi:10.2516/ogst/2018054 https://doaj.org/article/fbf7eb51460d4b50898ec6d55c40bc49 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.2516/ogst/2018054 |
container_title |
Oil & Gas Science and Technology – Revue d’IFP Energies nouvelles |
container_volume |
73 |
container_start_page |
54 |
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1766116398077050880 |