Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fb87d4865668489e9d24fa8d5acf5a79 2023-05-15T14:54:52+02:00 Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations A. K. DuVivier P. DeRepentigny M. M. Holland M. Webster J. E. Kay D. Perovich 2020-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://doaj.org/article/fb87d4865668489e9d24fa8d5acf5a79 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1259/2020/tc-14-1259-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/fb87d4865668489e9d24fa8d5acf5a79 The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 1259-1271 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 2022-12-31T02:22:32Z In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative “perennial” and “seasonal” time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic The Cryosphere 14 4 1259 1271 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. K. DuVivier P. DeRepentigny M. M. Holland M. Webster J. E. Kay D. Perovich Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has shifted toward a younger, thinner, seasonal ice regime. Studying and understanding this “new” Arctic will be the focus of a year-long ship campaign beginning in autumn 2019. Lagrangian tracking of sea ice floes in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) during representative “perennial” and “seasonal” time periods allows for understanding of the conditions that a floe could experience throughout the calendar year. These model tracks, put into context a single year of observations, provide guidance on how observations can optimally shape model development, and how climate models could be used in future campaign planning. The modeled floe tracks show a range of possible trajectories, though a Transpolar Drift trajectory is most likely. There is also a small but emerging possibility of high-risk tracks, including possible melt of the floe before the end of a calendar year. We find that a Lagrangian approach is essential in order to correctly compare the seasonal cycle of sea ice conditions between point-based observations and a model. Because of high variability in the melt season sea ice conditions, we recommend in situ sampling over a large range of ice conditions for a more complete understanding of how ice type and surface conditions affect the observed processes. We find that sea ice predictability emerges rapidly during the autumn freeze-up and anticipate that process-based observations during this period may help elucidate the processes leading to this change in predictability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. K. DuVivier P. DeRepentigny M. M. Holland M. Webster J. E. Kay D. Perovich |
author_facet |
A. K. DuVivier P. DeRepentigny M. M. Holland M. Webster J. E. Kay D. Perovich |
author_sort |
A. K. DuVivier |
title |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_short |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_full |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_fullStr |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Going with the floe: tracking CESM Large Ensemble sea ice in the Arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
title_sort |
going with the floe: tracking cesm large ensemble sea ice in the arctic provides context for ship-based observations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 https://doaj.org/article/fb87d4865668489e9d24fa8d5acf5a79 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 1259-1271 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1259/2020/tc-14-1259-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/fb87d4865668489e9d24fa8d5acf5a79 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1259-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1259 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
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