Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.
Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c 2023-05-15T15:11:27+02:00 Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0253895 (2021) Medicine R Science Q article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 2022-12-31T05:03:23Z Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Yukon PLOS ONE 16 7 e0253895 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand |
author_facet |
Kylee D Dunham Erik E Osnas Charles J Frost Julian B Fischer James B Grand |
author_sort |
Kylee D Dunham |
title |
Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
title_short |
Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
title_full |
Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis. |
title_sort |
assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a bayesian decision analysis. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c |
geographic |
Arctic Yukon |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Yukon |
genre |
Arctic Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kuskokwim Alaska Yukon |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 7, p e0253895 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 https://doaj.org/article/fb688ca71ad94f979c1972e68c67170c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253895 |
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PLOS ONE |
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16 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e0253895 |
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