Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales
Recent work has shown that (sub-)seasonal variability in tropical Pacific convection, closely linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), relates to summertime circulation over the Euro-Atlantic. The teleconnection is non-stationary, probably due to long-term changes in both the tropical Paci...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:faceb48330f748b997c2e7916e5574d2 2023-11-12T04:22:27+01:00 Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales C. van Straaten D. Coumou K. Whan B. van den Hurk M. Schmeits 2023-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 https://doaj.org/article/faceb48330f748b997c2e7916e5574d2 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/887/2023/wcd-4-887-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/faceb48330f748b997c2e7916e5574d2 Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 4, Pp 887-903 (2023) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 2023-10-29T00:35:29Z Recent work has shown that (sub-)seasonal variability in tropical Pacific convection, closely linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), relates to summertime circulation over the Euro-Atlantic. The teleconnection is non-stationary, probably due to long-term changes in both the tropical Pacific and extra-tropical Atlantic. It also appears imperfectly captured by numerical models. A dipole in west Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was found to be the best predictor of errors in numerical sub-seasonal forecasts of European temperature. In this diagnostic study we use reanalysis data to further investigate the teleconnection pathway and the processes behind its non-stationarity. We show that SST gradients associated with the dipole represent a combination of ENSO variability and west Pacific warming, and have become stronger since 1980. Associated patterns of suppressed and enhanced tropical heating are followed by quasi-stationary waves that linger for multiple weeks. Situations with La Niña-like gradients are followed by high-pressure centres over eastern Europe and Russia, three to six weeks later. Inverted situations are followed by high pressure over western Europe, three to six weeks later. The latter situation is conditional on a strong meridional tripole in north Atlantic SSTs and a co-located jet stream. Overall, the sub-seasonal pathway diagnosed in this study connects to patterns detected on seasonal scales, and confirms earlier findings that the summertime connectivity between the Pacific and Europe has shifted in recent decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Weather and Climate Dynamics 4 4 887 903 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 C. van Straaten D. Coumou K. Whan B. van den Hurk M. Schmeits Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Recent work has shown that (sub-)seasonal variability in tropical Pacific convection, closely linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), relates to summertime circulation over the Euro-Atlantic. The teleconnection is non-stationary, probably due to long-term changes in both the tropical Pacific and extra-tropical Atlantic. It also appears imperfectly captured by numerical models. A dipole in west Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was found to be the best predictor of errors in numerical sub-seasonal forecasts of European temperature. In this diagnostic study we use reanalysis data to further investigate the teleconnection pathway and the processes behind its non-stationarity. We show that SST gradients associated with the dipole represent a combination of ENSO variability and west Pacific warming, and have become stronger since 1980. Associated patterns of suppressed and enhanced tropical heating are followed by quasi-stationary waves that linger for multiple weeks. Situations with La Niña-like gradients are followed by high-pressure centres over eastern Europe and Russia, three to six weeks later. Inverted situations are followed by high pressure over western Europe, three to six weeks later. The latter situation is conditional on a strong meridional tripole in north Atlantic SSTs and a co-located jet stream. Overall, the sub-seasonal pathway diagnosed in this study connects to patterns detected on seasonal scales, and confirms earlier findings that the summertime connectivity between the Pacific and Europe has shifted in recent decades. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
C. van Straaten D. Coumou K. Whan B. van den Hurk M. Schmeits |
author_facet |
C. van Straaten D. Coumou K. Whan B. van den Hurk M. Schmeits |
author_sort |
C. van Straaten |
title |
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
title_short |
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
title_full |
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
title_fullStr |
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
title_sort |
strengthening gradients in the tropical west pacific connect to european summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 https://doaj.org/article/faceb48330f748b997c2e7916e5574d2 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol 4, Pp 887-903 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/887/2023/wcd-4-887-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2698-4016 doi:10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 2698-4016 https://doaj.org/article/faceb48330f748b997c2e7916e5574d2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-887-2023 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
887 |
op_container_end_page |
903 |
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1782337500707028992 |