Can slide positivity rates predict malaria transmission?

• Published in: Malaria Journal
• Main Authors: Bi Yan, Hu Wenbiao, Liu Huaxin, Xiao Yujiang, Guo Yuming, Chen Shimei, Zhao Laifa, Tong Shilu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2012
• Subjects: Malaria transmission; Slide positivity rates; Malaria elimination; International border areas; China; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Infectious and parasitic diseases; RC109-216; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-117; https://doaj.org/article/f9d6d9b857d845e78c0a2735ed238002

Abstract Background Malaria is a significant threat to population health in the border areas of Yunnan Province, China. How to accurately measure malaria transmission is an important issue. This study aimed to examine the role of slide positivity rates (SPR) in malaria transmission in Mengla County, Yunnan Province, China. Methods Data on annual malaria cases, SPR and socio-economic factors for the period of 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Bureau of Statistics, Mengla, China. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to evaluate the relationship between socio-ecologic factors and malaria incidence. Results The results show that SPR was significantly positively associated with the malaria incidence rates. The SPR (β = 1.244, p = 0.000) alone and combination (SPR, β = 1.326, p < 0.001) with other predictors can explain about 85% and 95% of variation in malaria transmission, respectively. Every 1% increase in SPR corresponded to an increase of 1.76/100,000 in malaria incidence rates. Conclusion SPR is a strong predictor of malaria transmission, and can be used to improve the planning and implementation of malaria elimination programmes in Mengla and other similar locations. SPR might also be a useful indicator of malaria early warning systems in China.