Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering
A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f9ca2ad5c84443ac86237da2eb11a9b1 2023-05-15T13:53:25+02:00 Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering S. Tilmes D. G. MacMartin J. T. M. Lenaerts L. van Kampenhout L. Muntjewerf L. Xia C. S. Harrison K. M. Krumhardt M. J. Mills B. Kravitz A. Robock 2020-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 https://doaj.org/article/f9ca2ad5c84443ac86237da2eb11a9b1 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/579/2020/esd-11-579-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/f9ca2ad5c84443ac86237da2eb11a9b1 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 579-601 (2020) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 2022-12-31T13:46:47Z A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ∘ C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 ∘ N, 15 ∘ N, 15 ∘ S, and 30 ∘ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ∘ C vs. 2.0 ∘ C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Earth System Dynamics 11 3 579 601 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 S. Tilmes D. G. MacMartin J. T. M. Lenaerts L. van Kampenhout L. Muntjewerf L. Xia C. S. Harrison K. M. Krumhardt M. J. Mills B. Kravitz A. Robock Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ∘ C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 ∘ N, 15 ∘ N, 15 ∘ S, and 30 ∘ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ∘ C vs. 2.0 ∘ C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Tilmes D. G. MacMartin J. T. M. Lenaerts L. van Kampenhout L. Muntjewerf L. Xia C. S. Harrison K. M. Krumhardt M. J. Mills B. Kravitz A. Robock |
author_facet |
S. Tilmes D. G. MacMartin J. T. M. Lenaerts L. van Kampenhout L. Muntjewerf L. Xia C. S. Harrison K. M. Krumhardt M. J. Mills B. Kravitz A. Robock |
author_sort |
S. Tilmes |
title |
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
title_short |
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
title_full |
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
title_fullStr |
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
title_sort |
reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °c global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 https://doaj.org/article/f9ca2ad5c84443ac86237da2eb11a9b1 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ocean acidification |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 11, Pp 579-601 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/579/2020/esd-11-579-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/f9ca2ad5c84443ac86237da2eb11a9b1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
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11 |
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3 |
container_start_page |
579 |
op_container_end_page |
601 |
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