The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050
This study establishes a predictive empirical model, the first of its kind, which is innately a cause-and-effect representation of the observed global mean sea level over time. The model uses the trends of its observed budget components, including the temporal variations in mass of glaciers, Greenla...
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2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 https://doaj.org/article/f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 2023-05-15T13:32:31+02:00 The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 H. Bâki Iz 2022-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 https://doaj.org/article/f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 https://doaj.org/toc/2766-9645 doi:10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 2766-9645 https://doaj.org/article/f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 All Earth, Vol 34, Iss 1, Pp 215-223 (2022) Climate change global mean sea level budget luni-solar forcing prediction of global mean sea level rise Geology QE1-996.5 Physical geography GB3-5030 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 2022-12-30T21:08:49Z This study establishes a predictive empirical model, the first of its kind, which is innately a cause-and-effect representation of the observed global mean sea level over time. The model uses the trends of its observed budget components, including the temporal variations in mass of glaciers, Greenland, Antarctic ice sheets, terrestrial water storage, steric effect, and astronomical forcings of luni-solar origin, as independent variables in representing global mean sea level anomalies, namely, the dependent variable. The model parameters are estimated using monthly globally averaged satellite altimetry measurements and the yearly rates of the budget components during 1993–2018 as a priori information. Prospective monthly global mean sea level anomalies are then quantified and tabulated together with their root mean square error of prediction at 5% significance level for the period 2018–2050. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Greenland All Earth 34 1 215 223 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change global mean sea level budget luni-solar forcing prediction of global mean sea level rise Geology QE1-996.5 Physical geography GB3-5030 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change global mean sea level budget luni-solar forcing prediction of global mean sea level rise Geology QE1-996.5 Physical geography GB3-5030 H. Bâki Iz The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
topic_facet |
Climate change global mean sea level budget luni-solar forcing prediction of global mean sea level rise Geology QE1-996.5 Physical geography GB3-5030 |
description |
This study establishes a predictive empirical model, the first of its kind, which is innately a cause-and-effect representation of the observed global mean sea level over time. The model uses the trends of its observed budget components, including the temporal variations in mass of glaciers, Greenland, Antarctic ice sheets, terrestrial water storage, steric effect, and astronomical forcings of luni-solar origin, as independent variables in representing global mean sea level anomalies, namely, the dependent variable. The model parameters are estimated using monthly globally averaged satellite altimetry measurements and the yearly rates of the budget components during 1993–2018 as a priori information. Prospective monthly global mean sea level anomalies are then quantified and tabulated together with their root mean square error of prediction at 5% significance level for the period 2018–2050. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Bâki Iz |
author_facet |
H. Bâki Iz |
author_sort |
H. Bâki Iz |
title |
The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
title_short |
The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
title_full |
The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
title_fullStr |
The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
title_sort |
global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050 |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 https://doaj.org/article/f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
All Earth, Vol 34, Iss 1, Pp 215-223 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 https://doaj.org/toc/2766-9645 doi:10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 2766-9645 https://doaj.org/article/f94a7a6f19ca4672b95df24111f27764 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/27669645.2022.2109299 |
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All Earth |
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34 |
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1 |
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215 |
op_container_end_page |
223 |
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1766028154249412608 |