Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface ma...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f8b971d7b1b34bfba8b286c93a32eb89 2024-02-11T09:55:38+01:00 Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 Nicole Schaffer Luke Copland Christian Zdanowicz Regine Hock https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 https://doaj.org/article/f8b971d7b1b34bfba8b286c93a32eb89 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S026030552300068X/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2023.68 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/f8b971d7b1b34bfba8b286c93a32eb89 Annals of Glaciology, Pp 1-13 Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 2024-01-21T01:35:43Z Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap ENVELOPE(-66.214,-66.214,67.284,67.284) Annals of Glaciology 1 13 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Nicole Schaffer Luke Copland Christian Zdanowicz Regine Hock Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
topic_facet |
Arctic glaciology climate change glacier mass balance glacier modeling Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nicole Schaffer Luke Copland Christian Zdanowicz Regine Hock |
author_facet |
Nicole Schaffer Luke Copland Christian Zdanowicz Regine Hock |
author_sort |
Nicole Schaffer |
title |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_short |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_full |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the surface mass balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, 1959–2099 |
title_sort |
modeling the surface mass balance of penny ice cap, baffin island, 1959–2099 |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 https://doaj.org/article/f8b971d7b1b34bfba8b286c93a32eb89 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-66.214,-66.214,67.284,67.284) |
geographic |
Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Baffin Island Canada Penny Ice Cap |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Baffin Island Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice cap Penny Ice Cap |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology, Pp 1-13 |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S026030552300068X/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2023.68 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/f8b971d7b1b34bfba8b286c93a32eb89 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.68 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
13 |
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1790597984140918784 |