Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models
As operational support to define the Clouds–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa (CADDIWA) field campaign which took place in the Cape Verde area, the coupled regional model WRF–CHIMERE is deployed in forecast mode during the summer 2021. The simulation domain covers West Africa and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f87935e704724d51a8930aa8b1f7c797 2023-08-20T03:59:12+02:00 Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models L. Menut 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 https://doaj.org/article/f87935e704724d51a8930aa8b1f7c797 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/4265/2023/gmd-16-4265-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/f87935e704724d51a8930aa8b1f7c797 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 16, Pp 4265-4281 (2023) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 2023-07-30T00:37:25Z As operational support to define the Clouds–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa (CADDIWA) field campaign which took place in the Cape Verde area, the coupled regional model WRF–CHIMERE is deployed in forecast mode during the summer 2021. The simulation domain covers West Africa and the eastern Atlantic and allows the modeling of dust emissions and their transport to the Atlantic. On this route, we find Cape Verde, which was used as a base for measurements during the CADDIWA campaign. Meteorological variables and mineral dust concentrations are forecasted on a horizontal grid with a 30 km resolution and from the surface to 200 hPa. For a given day D , simulations are initialized from D −1 analyses and run for 4 d until D +4 , yielding up to six available simulations on a given day. For each day, we thus have six different calculations, with better precision expected the closer we get to the analysis (lead D −1 ). In this study, a quantification of the forecast variability of wind, temperature, precipitation and mineral dust concentrations according to the modeled lead is presented. It is shown that the forecast quality does not decrease with time, and the high variability observed on some days for some variables (wind, temperature) does not explain the behavior of other dependent and downwind variables (mineral dust concentrations). A new method is also tested to create an ensemble without perturbing input data, but considering six forecast leads available for each date as members of an ensemble forecast. It has been shown that this new forecast based on this ensemble is able to give better results for two AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations than the four available for aerosol optical depth observations. This could open the door to further testing with more complex operational systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Aerosol Robotic Network Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Geoscientific Model Development 16 14 4265 4281 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Geology QE1-996.5 L. Menut Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
As operational support to define the Clouds–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa (CADDIWA) field campaign which took place in the Cape Verde area, the coupled regional model WRF–CHIMERE is deployed in forecast mode during the summer 2021. The simulation domain covers West Africa and the eastern Atlantic and allows the modeling of dust emissions and their transport to the Atlantic. On this route, we find Cape Verde, which was used as a base for measurements during the CADDIWA campaign. Meteorological variables and mineral dust concentrations are forecasted on a horizontal grid with a 30 km resolution and from the surface to 200 hPa. For a given day D , simulations are initialized from D −1 analyses and run for 4 d until D +4 , yielding up to six available simulations on a given day. For each day, we thus have six different calculations, with better precision expected the closer we get to the analysis (lead D −1 ). In this study, a quantification of the forecast variability of wind, temperature, precipitation and mineral dust concentrations according to the modeled lead is presented. It is shown that the forecast quality does not decrease with time, and the high variability observed on some days for some variables (wind, temperature) does not explain the behavior of other dependent and downwind variables (mineral dust concentrations). A new method is also tested to create an ensemble without perturbing input data, but considering six forecast leads available for each date as members of an ensemble forecast. It has been shown that this new forecast based on this ensemble is able to give better results for two AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations than the four available for aerosol optical depth observations. This could open the door to further testing with more complex operational systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L. Menut |
author_facet |
L. Menut |
author_sort |
L. Menut |
title |
Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
title_short |
Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
title_full |
Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
title_fullStr |
Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 CADDIWA experiment using the WRF 3.7.1 and CHIMERE v2020r3 models |
title_sort |
variability and combination as an ensemble of mineral dust forecasts during the 2021 caddiwa experiment using the wrf 3.7.1 and chimere v2020r3 models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 https://doaj.org/article/f87935e704724d51a8930aa8b1f7c797 |
genre |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
genre_facet |
Aerosol Robotic Network |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 16, Pp 4265-4281 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/4265/2023/gmd-16-4265-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/f87935e704724d51a8930aa8b1f7c797 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4265-2023 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
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16 |
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14 |
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4265 |
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4281 |
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