Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions
Previous studies have shown how the passage of eddies from the Caribbean Sea (CS) to the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can impact the Loop Current (LC) system, in particular the detachments of LC Eddies (LCEs). Here we used numerical modeling to investigate the impact of the eddy field in the CS on LC predic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f814d0bddb194885a1d78f5c376c708f 2023-05-15T17:36:59+02:00 Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions Matthieu Le Hénaff Vassiliki H. Kourafalou Yannis Androulidakis Nektaria Ntaganou HeeSook Kang 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 https://doaj.org/article/f814d0bddb194885a1d78f5c376c708f EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 https://doaj.org/article/f814d0bddb194885a1d78f5c376c708f Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Caribbean Sea mesoscale eddies ocean forecast Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 2023-03-26T01:36:23Z Previous studies have shown how the passage of eddies from the Caribbean Sea (CS) to the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can impact the Loop Current (LC) system, in particular the detachments of LC Eddies (LCEs). Here we used numerical modeling to investigate the impact of the eddy field in the CS on LC predictions. We used a HYCOM ocean model configuration of the North Atlantic at 1/12° resolution to perform two data-assimilative experiments: one in which all available observations were assimilated (Ref), and one in which all available observations were assimilated except in the CS, where climatological altimetry values were assimilated instead of actual observations, leading to dampening the mesoscale activity there (NoCarib). These experiments took place in 2015, when the LC was very active with several LCE detachments, re-attachments, and separations. Each of these experiments was used to initialize 28 60-day forecast simulations every 10 days. In terms of model Sea Surface Height (SSH), the forecasts initialized with the Ref experiment had, on average, lower errors than the forecasts initialized with the NoCarib experiment in the southeastern part of the GoM, with a peak during the 31-40 day forecast period. More importantly, the errors in predicting the date of the next LCE detachment or separation were smaller in the forecasts initialized from the more realistic Ref experiment. Finally, the forecasts initialized by the NoCarib experiment showed a much higher level of false negatives predictions, meaning that no LCE detachment was predicted whereas a detachment actually happened. Overall, 68% of LCE detachments were predicted with an error smaller than 15 days in the forecasts initialized from the more realistic Ref experiment, but only 32% in the forecasts initialized from the NoCarib experiment, stressing the importance of the CS eddy field for predicting the LC evolution. These findings have implications on the GoM predictability, highlighting the need to either run data-assimilative models covering both the GoM ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Frontiers in Marine Science 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Caribbean Sea mesoscale eddies ocean forecast Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Caribbean Sea mesoscale eddies ocean forecast Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Matthieu Le Hénaff Vassiliki H. Kourafalou Yannis Androulidakis Nektaria Ntaganou HeeSook Kang Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
topic_facet |
Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Caribbean Sea mesoscale eddies ocean forecast Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
Previous studies have shown how the passage of eddies from the Caribbean Sea (CS) to the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) can impact the Loop Current (LC) system, in particular the detachments of LC Eddies (LCEs). Here we used numerical modeling to investigate the impact of the eddy field in the CS on LC predictions. We used a HYCOM ocean model configuration of the North Atlantic at 1/12° resolution to perform two data-assimilative experiments: one in which all available observations were assimilated (Ref), and one in which all available observations were assimilated except in the CS, where climatological altimetry values were assimilated instead of actual observations, leading to dampening the mesoscale activity there (NoCarib). These experiments took place in 2015, when the LC was very active with several LCE detachments, re-attachments, and separations. Each of these experiments was used to initialize 28 60-day forecast simulations every 10 days. In terms of model Sea Surface Height (SSH), the forecasts initialized with the Ref experiment had, on average, lower errors than the forecasts initialized with the NoCarib experiment in the southeastern part of the GoM, with a peak during the 31-40 day forecast period. More importantly, the errors in predicting the date of the next LCE detachment or separation were smaller in the forecasts initialized from the more realistic Ref experiment. Finally, the forecasts initialized by the NoCarib experiment showed a much higher level of false negatives predictions, meaning that no LCE detachment was predicted whereas a detachment actually happened. Overall, 68% of LCE detachments were predicted with an error smaller than 15 days in the forecasts initialized from the more realistic Ref experiment, but only 32% in the forecasts initialized from the NoCarib experiment, stressing the importance of the CS eddy field for predicting the LC evolution. These findings have implications on the GoM predictability, highlighting the need to either run data-assimilative models covering both the GoM ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Matthieu Le Hénaff Vassiliki H. Kourafalou Yannis Androulidakis Nektaria Ntaganou HeeSook Kang |
author_facet |
Matthieu Le Hénaff Vassiliki H. Kourafalou Yannis Androulidakis Nektaria Ntaganou HeeSook Kang |
author_sort |
Matthieu Le Hénaff |
title |
Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
title_short |
Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
title_full |
Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
title_fullStr |
Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions |
title_sort |
influence of the caribbean sea eddy field on loop current predictions |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 https://doaj.org/article/f814d0bddb194885a1d78f5c376c708f |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 https://doaj.org/article/f814d0bddb194885a1d78f5c376c708f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1129402 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
10 |
_version_ |
1766136662257041408 |