Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run
In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tenden...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 https://doaj.org/article/f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 2023-05-15T13:24:12+02:00 Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run J. Beaumet M. Déqué G. Krinner C. Agosta A. Alias V. Favier 2021-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 https://doaj.org/article/f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3615/2021/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 3615-3635 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 2022-12-31T07:17:39Z In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The bias reduction with respect to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 % to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature increase ( +7.7 % K −1 and +9 % K −1 ) found is also higher than previous estimates. The highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Amundsen Sea The Cryosphere 15 8 3615 3635 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. Beaumet M. Déqué G. Krinner C. Agosta A. Alias V. Favier Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
In this study, we use run-time bias correction to correct for the Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE) atmospheric model systematic errors on large-scale atmospheric circulation. The bias-correction terms are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an ARPEGE simulation relaxed towards ERA-Interim reanalyses. The bias reduction with respect to the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style uncorrected control run for the general atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is significant for mean state and daily variability. Comparisons for the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the polar-oriented regional atmospheric models MAR and RACMO2 and in situ observations also suggest substantial bias reduction for near-surface temperature and precipitation in coastal areas. Applying the method to climate projections for the late 21st century (2071–2100) leads to large differences in the projected changes of the atmospheric circulation in the southern high latitudes and of the Antarctic surface climate. The projected poleward shift and strengthening of the southern westerly winds are greatly reduced. These changes result in a significant 0.7 to 0.9 K additional warming and a 6 % to 9 % additional increase in precipitation over the grounded ice sheet. The sensitivity of precipitation increase to temperature increase ( +7.7 % K −1 and +9 % K −1 ) found is also higher than previous estimates. The highest additional warming rates are found over East Antarctica in summer. In winter, there is a dipole of weaker warming and weaker precipitation increase over West Antarctica, contrasted by a stronger warming and a concomitant stronger precipitation increase from Victoria to Adélie Land, associated with a weaker intensification of the Amundsen Sea Low. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Beaumet M. Déqué G. Krinner C. Agosta A. Alias V. Favier |
author_facet |
J. Beaumet M. Déqué G. Krinner C. Agosta A. Alias V. Favier |
author_sort |
J. Beaumet |
title |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_short |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_full |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_fullStr |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_full_unstemmed |
Significant additional Antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected ARPEGE projections with respect to control run |
title_sort |
significant additional antarctic warming in atmospheric bias-corrected arpege projections with respect to control run |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 https://doaj.org/article/f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Amundsen Sea |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 3615-3635 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/3615/2021/tc-15-3615-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/f7fc0b7336a34bba9f25be7e3f3b0788 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3615-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3615 |
op_container_end_page |
3635 |
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1766377989741740032 |