Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures
The complex terrain, seasonality, and cold region hydrology of the Nelson Churchill River Basin (NCRB) presents a formidable challenge for hydrological modeling, which complicates the calibration of model parameters. Seasonality leads to different hydrological processes dominating at different times...
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2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f7faca2adb914a26a10b2ecb1370ccaf 2023-12-31T10:05:56+01:00 Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures Ajay Bajracharya Hervé Awoye Tricia Stadnyk Masoud Asadzadeh 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040961 https://doaj.org/article/f7faca2adb914a26a10b2ecb1370ccaf EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/4/961 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w12040961 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/f7faca2adb914a26a10b2ecb1370ccaf Water, Vol 12, Iss 4, p 961 (2020) hydrological modeling cold region processes non-stationarity variogram analysis of response surfaces time variant sensitivity analysis Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040961 2023-12-03T01:36:32Z The complex terrain, seasonality, and cold region hydrology of the Nelson Churchill River Basin (NCRB) presents a formidable challenge for hydrological modeling, which complicates the calibration of model parameters. Seasonality leads to different hydrological processes dominating at different times of the year, which translates to time variant sensitivity in model parameters. In this study, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment model (HYPE) is set up in the NCRB to analyze the time variant sensitivity analysis (TVSA) of model parameters using a Global Sensitivity Analysis technique known as Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). TVSA can identify parameters that are highly influential in a short period but relatively uninfluential over the whole simulation period. TVSA is generally effective in identifying model’s sensitivity to event-based parameters related to cold region processes such as snowmelt and frozen soil. This can guide event-based calibration, useful for operational flood forecasting. In contrast to residual based metrics, flow signatures, specifically the slope of the mid-segment of the flow duration curve, allows VARS to detect the influential parameters throughout the timescale of analysis. The results are beneficial for the calibration process in complex and multi-dimensional models by targeting the informative parameters, which are associated with the cold region hydrological processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Churchill River Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Water 12 4 961 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
hydrological modeling cold region processes non-stationarity variogram analysis of response surfaces time variant sensitivity analysis Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
spellingShingle |
hydrological modeling cold region processes non-stationarity variogram analysis of response surfaces time variant sensitivity analysis Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 Ajay Bajracharya Hervé Awoye Tricia Stadnyk Masoud Asadzadeh Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
topic_facet |
hydrological modeling cold region processes non-stationarity variogram analysis of response surfaces time variant sensitivity analysis Hydraulic engineering TC1-978 Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes TD201-500 |
description |
The complex terrain, seasonality, and cold region hydrology of the Nelson Churchill River Basin (NCRB) presents a formidable challenge for hydrological modeling, which complicates the calibration of model parameters. Seasonality leads to different hydrological processes dominating at different times of the year, which translates to time variant sensitivity in model parameters. In this study, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment model (HYPE) is set up in the NCRB to analyze the time variant sensitivity analysis (TVSA) of model parameters using a Global Sensitivity Analysis technique known as Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). TVSA can identify parameters that are highly influential in a short period but relatively uninfluential over the whole simulation period. TVSA is generally effective in identifying model’s sensitivity to event-based parameters related to cold region processes such as snowmelt and frozen soil. This can guide event-based calibration, useful for operational flood forecasting. In contrast to residual based metrics, flow signatures, specifically the slope of the mid-segment of the flow duration curve, allows VARS to detect the influential parameters throughout the timescale of analysis. The results are beneficial for the calibration process in complex and multi-dimensional models by targeting the informative parameters, which are associated with the cold region hydrological processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ajay Bajracharya Hervé Awoye Tricia Stadnyk Masoud Asadzadeh |
author_facet |
Ajay Bajracharya Hervé Awoye Tricia Stadnyk Masoud Asadzadeh |
author_sort |
Ajay Bajracharya |
title |
Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
title_short |
Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
title_full |
Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
title_fullStr |
Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures |
title_sort |
time variant sensitivity analysis of hydrological model parameters in a cold region using flow signatures |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040961 https://doaj.org/article/f7faca2adb914a26a10b2ecb1370ccaf |
genre |
Churchill River |
genre_facet |
Churchill River |
op_source |
Water, Vol 12, Iss 4, p 961 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/4/961 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4441 doi:10.3390/w12040961 2073-4441 https://doaj.org/article/f7faca2adb914a26a10b2ecb1370ccaf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040961 |
container_title |
Water |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
961 |
_version_ |
1786837660229173248 |