A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f703f7dc41bf4f48a10a92f10d491df2 2023-05-15T17:34:51+02:00 A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe Philip E. Bett Hazel E. Thornton Alberto Troccoli Matteo De Felice Emma Suckling Laurent Dubus Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan David J. Brayshaw 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 https://doaj.org/article/f703f7dc41bf4f48a10a92f10d491df2 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072200036X https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8807 2405-8807 doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 https://doaj.org/article/f703f7dc41bf4f48a10a92f10d491df2 Climate Services, Vol 27, Iss , Pp 100318- (2022) Seasonal forecasting Renewable energy Wind Solar Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 2022-12-30T21:13:07Z We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based method using the hindcast and forecast ensemble means provides a straightforward approach for producing calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This method extends naturally to using a larger-scale feature of the climate, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, as the climate model predictor, and we show that this provides opportunities to improve the skill in some cases.We further demonstrate that, on seasonal-average and regional (e.g. national) average scales, wind and solar power generation are highly correlated with single climate variables (wind speed and irradiance). The detailed non-linear transformations from meteorological quantities to energy quantities, which are essential for detailed simulation of power system operations, are usually not necessary when forecasting gross wind or solar generation potential at seasonal-mean regional-mean scales.Together, our results demonstrate that where there is skill in seasonal forecasts of wind speed and irradiance, or a correlated larger-scale climate predictor, skilful forecasts of seasonal mean wind and solar power generation can be made based on the climate variable alone, without requiring complex transformations. This greatly simplifies the process of developing a useful seasonal climate service. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate Services 27 100318 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Seasonal forecasting Renewable energy Wind Solar Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal forecasting Renewable energy Wind Solar Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Philip E. Bett Hazel E. Thornton Alberto Troccoli Matteo De Felice Emma Suckling Laurent Dubus Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan David J. Brayshaw A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
topic_facet |
Seasonal forecasting Renewable energy Wind Solar Climate services Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
description |
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based method using the hindcast and forecast ensemble means provides a straightforward approach for producing calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts. This method extends naturally to using a larger-scale feature of the climate, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, as the climate model predictor, and we show that this provides opportunities to improve the skill in some cases.We further demonstrate that, on seasonal-average and regional (e.g. national) average scales, wind and solar power generation are highly correlated with single climate variables (wind speed and irradiance). The detailed non-linear transformations from meteorological quantities to energy quantities, which are essential for detailed simulation of power system operations, are usually not necessary when forecasting gross wind or solar generation potential at seasonal-mean regional-mean scales.Together, our results demonstrate that where there is skill in seasonal forecasts of wind speed and irradiance, or a correlated larger-scale climate predictor, skilful forecasts of seasonal mean wind and solar power generation can be made based on the climate variable alone, without requiring complex transformations. This greatly simplifies the process of developing a useful seasonal climate service. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Philip E. Bett Hazel E. Thornton Alberto Troccoli Matteo De Felice Emma Suckling Laurent Dubus Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan David J. Brayshaw |
author_facet |
Philip E. Bett Hazel E. Thornton Alberto Troccoli Matteo De Felice Emma Suckling Laurent Dubus Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan David J. Brayshaw |
author_sort |
Philip E. Bett |
title |
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
title_short |
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
title_full |
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
title_fullStr |
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe |
title_sort |
simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in europe |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 https://doaj.org/article/f703f7dc41bf4f48a10a92f10d491df2 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate Services, Vol 27, Iss , Pp 100318- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072200036X https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8807 2405-8807 doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 https://doaj.org/article/f703f7dc41bf4f48a10a92f10d491df2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100318 |
container_title |
Climate Services |
container_volume |
27 |
container_start_page |
100318 |
_version_ |
1766133824165511168 |