Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling accelerates global warming

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Liang Qiao, Zhiyan Zuo, Renhe Zhang, Shilong Piao, Dong Xiao, Kaiwen Zhang
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2023
• Subjects: Science; Q; Antarc*; Antarctica
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-40641-y; https://doaj.org/article/f67ee12a2c1f46a9ab839e0bbc3d94b1

Abstract Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the ‘warmer climate – drier soil’ feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe.