Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public.
Prevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of mon...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f615c9bd82c44818bec427370a5a1fb4 2023-05-15T15:15:28+02:00 Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. Kim M Pepin Amy J Davis Daniel G Streicker Justin W Fischer Kurt C VerCauteren Amy T Gilbert 2017-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 https://doaj.org/article/f615c9bd82c44818bec427370a5a1fb4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5552346?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 https://doaj.org/article/f615c9bd82c44818bec427370a5a1fb4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0005822 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 2022-12-31T01:48:57Z Prevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of monitoring emergence of wildlife diseases, but can be challenging to interpret due to spatial biases and limitations in data quantity and quality.We obtained passive rabies surveillance data from dead striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in an epizootic in northern Colorado, USA. We developed a dynamic patch-occupancy model which predicts spatio-temporal spreading while accounting for heterogeneous sampling. We estimated the distance travelled per transmission event, direction of invasion, rate of spatial spread, and effects of infection density and season. We also estimated mean transmission distance and rates of spatial spread using a phylogeographic approach on a subsample of viral sequences from the same epizootic. Both the occupancy and phylogeographic approaches predicted similar rates of spatio-temporal spread. Estimated mean transmission distances were 2.3 km (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD95): 0.02, 11.9; phylogeographic) and 3.9 km (95% credible intervals (CI95): 1.4, 11.3; occupancy). Estimated rates of spatial spread in km/year were: 29.8 (HPD95: 20.8, 39.8; phylogeographic, branch velocity, homogenous model), 22.6 (HPD95: 15.3, 29.7; phylogeographic, diffusion rate, homogenous model) and 21.1 (CI95: 16.7, 25.5; occupancy). Initial colonization probability was twice as high in spring relative to fall.Skunk-to-skunk transmission was primarily local (< 4 km) suggesting that if interventions were needed, they could be applied at the wave front. Slower viral invasions of skunk rabies in western USA compared to a similar epizootic in raccoons in the eastern USA implies host species or landscape factors underlie the dynamics of rabies invasions. Our framework provides a straightforward method for estimating ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 7 e0005822 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Kim M Pepin Amy J Davis Daniel G Streicker Justin W Fischer Kurt C VerCauteren Amy T Gilbert Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Prevention and control of wildlife disease invasions relies on the ability to predict spatio-temporal dynamics and understand the role of factors driving spread rates, such as seasonality and transmission distance. Passive disease surveillance (i.e., case reports by public) is a common method of monitoring emergence of wildlife diseases, but can be challenging to interpret due to spatial biases and limitations in data quantity and quality.We obtained passive rabies surveillance data from dead striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in an epizootic in northern Colorado, USA. We developed a dynamic patch-occupancy model which predicts spatio-temporal spreading while accounting for heterogeneous sampling. We estimated the distance travelled per transmission event, direction of invasion, rate of spatial spread, and effects of infection density and season. We also estimated mean transmission distance and rates of spatial spread using a phylogeographic approach on a subsample of viral sequences from the same epizootic. Both the occupancy and phylogeographic approaches predicted similar rates of spatio-temporal spread. Estimated mean transmission distances were 2.3 km (95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD95): 0.02, 11.9; phylogeographic) and 3.9 km (95% credible intervals (CI95): 1.4, 11.3; occupancy). Estimated rates of spatial spread in km/year were: 29.8 (HPD95: 20.8, 39.8; phylogeographic, branch velocity, homogenous model), 22.6 (HPD95: 15.3, 29.7; phylogeographic, diffusion rate, homogenous model) and 21.1 (CI95: 16.7, 25.5; occupancy). Initial colonization probability was twice as high in spring relative to fall.Skunk-to-skunk transmission was primarily local (< 4 km) suggesting that if interventions were needed, they could be applied at the wave front. Slower viral invasions of skunk rabies in western USA compared to a similar epizootic in raccoons in the eastern USA implies host species or landscape factors underlie the dynamics of rabies invasions. Our framework provides a straightforward method for estimating ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kim M Pepin Amy J Davis Daniel G Streicker Justin W Fischer Kurt C VerCauteren Amy T Gilbert |
author_facet |
Kim M Pepin Amy J Davis Daniel G Streicker Justin W Fischer Kurt C VerCauteren Amy T Gilbert |
author_sort |
Kim M Pepin |
title |
Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
title_short |
Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
title_full |
Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
title_fullStr |
Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
title_sort |
predicting spatial spread of rabies in skunk populations using surveillance data reported by the public. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 https://doaj.org/article/f615c9bd82c44818bec427370a5a1fb4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0005822 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5552346?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 https://doaj.org/article/f615c9bd82c44818bec427370a5a1fb4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005822 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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11 |
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7 |
container_start_page |
e0005822 |
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