A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite
Changes in Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton distributions with future warming have the potential to significantly alter nutrient and carbon cycles as well as higher trophic level productivity both locally and throughout the global ocean. Here we investigate the response of SO phytoplankton producti...
Published in: | Biogeosciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 https://doaj.org/article/f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 2023-05-15T13:38:50+02:00 A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite S. Leung A. Cabré I. Marinov 2015-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 https://doaj.org/article/f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/5715/2015/bg-12-5715-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 https://doaj.org/article/f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 19, Pp 5715-5734 (2015) Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 2022-12-31T09:40:45Z Changes in Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton distributions with future warming have the potential to significantly alter nutrient and carbon cycles as well as higher trophic level productivity both locally and throughout the global ocean. Here we investigate the response of SO phytoplankton productivity and biomass to 21st century climate change across the CMIP5 Earth System Model suite. The models predict a zonally banded pattern of phytoplankton abundance and production changes within four regions: the subtropical (~ 30 to 40° S), transitional (~ 40 to 50° S), subpolar (~ 50 to 65° S) and Antarctic (south of ~ 65° S) bands. We find that shifts in bottom-up variables (nitrate, iron and light availability) drive changes in phytoplankton abundance and production on not only interannual, but also decadal and 100-year timescales – the timescales most relevant to climate change. Spatial patterns in the modelled mechanisms driving these biomass trends qualitatively agree with recent observations, though longer-term records are needed to separate the effects of climate change from those of interannual variability. Because much past observational work has focused on understanding the effects of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on biology, future work should attempt to quantify the precise influence of an increasingly positive SAM on SO biology within the CMIP5 models. Continued long-term in situ and satellite measurements of SO biology are clearly needed to confirm model findings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Southern Ocean Biogeosciences 12 19 5715 5734 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 S. Leung A. Cabré I. Marinov A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
topic_facet |
Ecology QH540-549.5 Life QH501-531 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Changes in Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton distributions with future warming have the potential to significantly alter nutrient and carbon cycles as well as higher trophic level productivity both locally and throughout the global ocean. Here we investigate the response of SO phytoplankton productivity and biomass to 21st century climate change across the CMIP5 Earth System Model suite. The models predict a zonally banded pattern of phytoplankton abundance and production changes within four regions: the subtropical (~ 30 to 40° S), transitional (~ 40 to 50° S), subpolar (~ 50 to 65° S) and Antarctic (south of ~ 65° S) bands. We find that shifts in bottom-up variables (nitrate, iron and light availability) drive changes in phytoplankton abundance and production on not only interannual, but also decadal and 100-year timescales – the timescales most relevant to climate change. Spatial patterns in the modelled mechanisms driving these biomass trends qualitatively agree with recent observations, though longer-term records are needed to separate the effects of climate change from those of interannual variability. Because much past observational work has focused on understanding the effects of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on biology, future work should attempt to quantify the precise influence of an increasingly positive SAM on SO biology within the CMIP5 models. Continued long-term in situ and satellite measurements of SO biology are clearly needed to confirm model findings. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Leung A. Cabré I. Marinov |
author_facet |
S. Leung A. Cabré I. Marinov |
author_sort |
S. Leung |
title |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
title_short |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
title_full |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
title_fullStr |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
title_full_unstemmed |
A latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the Southern Ocean across the CMIP5 model suite |
title_sort |
latitudinally banded phytoplankton response to 21st century climate change in the southern ocean across the cmip5 model suite |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 https://doaj.org/article/f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Biogeosciences, Vol 12, Iss 19, Pp 5715-5734 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/5715/2015/bg-12-5715-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4170 https://doaj.org/toc/1726-4189 1726-4170 1726-4189 doi:10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 https://doaj.org/article/f6065ebe991c4e17bdb431e2ed0a7159 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5715-2015 |
container_title |
Biogeosciences |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
5715 |
op_container_end_page |
5734 |
_version_ |
1766111592631500800 |