Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium
The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability....
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f5d6d443ec934a02ad9afbe9ef7bed96 2023-05-15T14:03:24+02:00 Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium Z. Lyu A. J. Orsi H. Goosse 2020-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 https://doaj.org/article/f5d6d443ec934a02ad9afbe9ef7bed96 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1411/2020/cp-16-1411-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/f5d6d443ec934a02ad9afbe9ef7bed96 Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 1411-1428 (2020) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 2022-12-31T01:14:28Z The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematic model–data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional or local scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to perform such a comparison using borehole measurements and the corresponding reconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standard approach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climate model at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in the time domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Although some characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniform smoothing, limit to some extent the model–data comparison, several robust features can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model–data comparison based on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using a forward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profiles when driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domain is not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but also provides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison in the time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derive metrics that can be applied for future model–data comparison. We also describe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics. The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE ( −1.0 ∘ C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with a weaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula ( −0.94 ∘ C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Mill Island West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Styx Glacier ENVELOPE(163.850,163.850,-74.033,-74.033) Mill Island ENVELOPE(100.667,100.667,-65.500,-65.500) Climate of the Past 16 4 1411 1428 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Z. Lyu A. J. Orsi H. Goosse Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematic model–data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional or local scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to perform such a comparison using borehole measurements and the corresponding reconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standard approach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climate model at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in the time domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Although some characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniform smoothing, limit to some extent the model–data comparison, several robust features can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model–data comparison based on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using a forward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profiles when driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domain is not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but also provides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison in the time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derive metrics that can be applied for future model–data comparison. We also describe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics. The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE ( −1.0 ∘ C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with a weaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula ( −0.94 ∘ C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Z. Lyu A. J. Orsi H. Goosse |
author_facet |
Z. Lyu A. J. Orsi H. Goosse |
author_sort |
Z. Lyu |
title |
Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
title_short |
Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
title_full |
Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
title_fullStr |
Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
title_sort |
comparison of observed borehole temperatures in antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 https://doaj.org/article/f5d6d443ec934a02ad9afbe9ef7bed96 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(163.850,163.850,-74.033,-74.033) ENVELOPE(100.667,100.667,-65.500,-65.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Styx Glacier Mill Island |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctica West Antarctic Ice Sheet Styx Glacier Mill Island |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Mill Island West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Ice Sheet Mill Island West Antarctica |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 16, Pp 1411-1428 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/1411/2020/cp-16-1411-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/f5d6d443ec934a02ad9afbe9ef7bed96 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1411-2020 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1411 |
op_container_end_page |
1428 |
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1766274034628034560 |