Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China.
Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. How...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881 2023-11-05T03:39:54+01:00 Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. Xiaoran Geng Yue Ma Wennian Cai Yuanyi Zha Tao Zhang Huadong Zhang Changhong Yang Fei Yin Tiejun Shui 2023-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 https://doaj.org/article/f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 https://doaj.org/article/f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 9, p e0011587 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 2023-10-08T00:37:57Z Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. However, many studies mainly predict future one-day incidence, which reduces the flexibility of prevention and control. Methods We collected the daily number of HFMD cases among children aged 0-14 years in Chengdu from 2011 to 2017, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data for the same period. The LSTM, Seq2Seq, Seq2Seq-Luong and Seq2Seq-Shih models were used to perform multi-step prediction of HFMD through multi-input multi-output. We evaluated the models in terms of overall prediction performance, the time delay and intensity of detection peaks. Results From 2011 to 2017, HFMD in Chengdu showed seasonal trends that were consistent with temperature, air pressure, rainfall, relative humidity, and PM10. The Seq2Seq-Shih model achieved the best performance, with RMSE, sMAPE and PCC values of 13.943~22.192, 17.880~27.937, and 0.887~0.705 for the 2-day to 15-day predictions, respectively. Meanwhile, the Seq2Seq-Shih model is able to detect peaks in the next 15 days with a smaller time delay. Conclusions The deep learning Seq2Seq-Shih model achieves the best performance in overall and peak prediction, and is applicable to HFMD multi-step prediction based on environmental factors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17 9 e0011587 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Xiaoran Geng Yue Ma Wennian Cai Yuanyi Zha Tao Zhang Huadong Zhang Changhong Yang Fei Yin Tiejun Shui Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. However, many studies mainly predict future one-day incidence, which reduces the flexibility of prevention and control. Methods We collected the daily number of HFMD cases among children aged 0-14 years in Chengdu from 2011 to 2017, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data for the same period. The LSTM, Seq2Seq, Seq2Seq-Luong and Seq2Seq-Shih models were used to perform multi-step prediction of HFMD through multi-input multi-output. We evaluated the models in terms of overall prediction performance, the time delay and intensity of detection peaks. Results From 2011 to 2017, HFMD in Chengdu showed seasonal trends that were consistent with temperature, air pressure, rainfall, relative humidity, and PM10. The Seq2Seq-Shih model achieved the best performance, with RMSE, sMAPE and PCC values of 13.943~22.192, 17.880~27.937, and 0.887~0.705 for the 2-day to 15-day predictions, respectively. Meanwhile, the Seq2Seq-Shih model is able to detect peaks in the next 15 days with a smaller time delay. Conclusions The deep learning Seq2Seq-Shih model achieves the best performance in overall and peak prediction, and is applicable to HFMD multi-step prediction based on environmental factors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Xiaoran Geng Yue Ma Wennian Cai Yuanyi Zha Tao Zhang Huadong Zhang Changhong Yang Fei Yin Tiejun Shui |
author_facet |
Xiaoran Geng Yue Ma Wennian Cai Yuanyi Zha Tao Zhang Huadong Zhang Changhong Yang Fei Yin Tiejun Shui |
author_sort |
Xiaoran Geng |
title |
Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
title_short |
Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
title_full |
Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China. |
title_sort |
evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: a case study of chengdu, china. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 https://doaj.org/article/f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881 |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 9, p e0011587 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587&type=printable https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 https://doaj.org/article/f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
e0011587 |
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