Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information
Abstract We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by condition...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f4e83e6ea8da495b8be805c7cb00d371 2023-05-15T18:18:19+02:00 Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information Eva Steirou Lars Gerlitz Xun Sun Heiko Apel Ankit Agarwal Sonja Totz Bruno Merz 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://doaj.org/article/f4e83e6ea8da495b8be805c7cb00d371 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/f4e83e6ea8da495b8be805c7cb00d371 Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2022) Medicine R Science Q article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 2022-12-31T01:00:13Z Abstract We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
spellingShingle |
Medicine R Science Q Eva Steirou Lars Gerlitz Xun Sun Heiko Apel Ankit Agarwal Sonja Totz Bruno Merz Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Abstract We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eva Steirou Lars Gerlitz Xun Sun Heiko Apel Ankit Agarwal Sonja Totz Bruno Merz |
author_facet |
Eva Steirou Lars Gerlitz Xun Sun Heiko Apel Ankit Agarwal Sonja Totz Bruno Merz |
author_sort |
Eva Steirou |
title |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_short |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_full |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_fullStr |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information |
title_sort |
towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in europe using climate and catchment information |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://doaj.org/article/f4e83e6ea8da495b8be805c7cb00d371 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/f4e83e6ea8da495b8be805c7cb00d371 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16633-1 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766194853358600192 |