El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans
Abstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf 2023-07-23T04:18:06+02:00 El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson 2023-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 https://doaj.org/article/f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf EN eng BMC https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf Malaria Journal, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-19 (2023) Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 2023-07-02T00:41:04Z Abstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981–2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950–2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored. Results El Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July–August–September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October–November–December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall. Conclusion Malaria–climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Indian Pacific Malaria Journal 22 1 |
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ftdoajarticles |
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topic |
Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
spellingShingle |
Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
topic_facet |
Climate variability and change Adaptation Ethiopia Rainfall temperature ENSO ENACTS Malaria Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background Ethiopia has a history of climate related malaria epidemics. An improved understanding of malaria–climate interactions is needed to inform malaria control and national adaptation plans. Methods Malaria–climate associations in Ethiopia were assessed using (a) monthly climate data (1981–2016) from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA), (b) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic and (c) historical malaria epidemic information obtained from the literature. Data analysed spanned 1950–2016. Individual analyses were undertaken over relevant time periods. The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal and spatial patterns of rainfall and minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) was explored using NMA online Maprooms. The relationship of historic malaria epidemics (local or widespread) and concurrent ENSO phases (El Niño, Neutral, La Niña) and climate conditions (including drought) was explored in various ways. The relationships between SSTs (ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical Atlantic), rainfall, Tmin, Tmax and malaria epidemics in Amhara region were also explored. Results El Niño events are strongly related to higher Tmax across the country, drought in north-west Ethiopia during the July–August–September (JAS) rainy season and unusually heavy rain in the semi-arid south-east during the October–November–December (OND) season. La Niña conditions approximate the reverse. At the national level malaria epidemics mostly occur following the JAS rainy season and widespread epidemics are commonly associated with El Niño events when Tmax is high, and drought is common. In the Amhara region, malaria epidemics were not associated with ENSO, but with warm Tropical Atlantic SSTs and higher rainfall. Conclusion Malaria–climate relationships in Ethiopia are complex, unravelling them requires good climate and malaria data (as well as data on potential confounders) and an understanding of the regional and local ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson |
author_facet |
Adugna Woyessa Asher Siebert Aisha Owusu Rémi Cousin Tufa Dinku Madeleine C. Thomson |
author_sort |
Adugna Woyessa |
title |
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
title_short |
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
title_full |
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
title_fullStr |
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
title_full_unstemmed |
El Niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
title_sort |
el niño and other climatic drivers of epidemic malaria in ethiopia: new tools for national health adaptation plans |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 https://doaj.org/article/f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf |
geographic |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 22, Iss 1, Pp 1-19 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/f4baf9667d2f467ca0f9975f4c3568bf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04621-3 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1772180243409272832 |