Interdecadal shifts of ENSO influences on Spring Central Asian precipitation

• Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Main Authors: Mengyuan Yao, Haosu Tang, Gang Huang, Renguang Wu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2024
• Subjects: Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Pacific; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00742-x; https://doaj.org/article/f4abdc0ad5b341ee87194b3c7f3420e7

Abstract Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.