Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran
Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epide...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f447f28c0daf403fbd3e7aa3d152c1ee 2023-05-15T15:07:09+02:00 Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran McKelvie William R Haghdoost Ali Raeisi Ahmad 2012-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 https://doaj.org/article/f447f28c0daf403fbd3e7aa3d152c1ee EN eng BMC http://www.malariajournal.com/content/11/1/81 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/f447f28c0daf403fbd3e7aa3d152c1ee Malaria Journal, Vol 11, Iss 1, p 81 (2012) Malaria Epidemics Iran Sensitivity Specificity Surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 2022-12-31T12:58:00Z Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Malaria Journal 11 1 81 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Malaria Epidemics Iran Sensitivity Specificity Surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
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Malaria Epidemics Iran Sensitivity Specificity Surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 McKelvie William R Haghdoost Ali Raeisi Ahmad Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
topic_facet |
Malaria Epidemics Iran Sensitivity Specificity Surveillance Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 |
description |
Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
McKelvie William R Haghdoost Ali Raeisi Ahmad |
author_facet |
McKelvie William R Haghdoost Ali Raeisi Ahmad |
author_sort |
McKelvie William R |
title |
Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
title_short |
Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
title_full |
Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
title_fullStr |
Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
title_full_unstemmed |
Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran |
title_sort |
defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east iran |
publisher |
BMC |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 https://doaj.org/article/f447f28c0daf403fbd3e7aa3d152c1ee |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Malaria Journal, Vol 11, Iss 1, p 81 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/11/1/81 https://doaj.org/toc/1475-2875 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 1475-2875 https://doaj.org/article/f447f28c0daf403fbd3e7aa3d152c1ee |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-11-81 |
container_title |
Malaria Journal |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
81 |
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1766338710321758208 |