A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation
Abstract July is the rainy peak month of central China, with a large interannual variation of local precipitation often causing serious droughts and floods. The seasonal prediction of the central China July precipitation (CCJP) is an important but still challenging task. Here, we suggest several rob...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f42aefc25320433cbe12dfa317c5a686 2024-09-09T19:55:51+00:00 A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation Gen Li Lin Chen Bo Lu 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/article/f42aefc25320433cbe12dfa317c5a686 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/article/f42aefc25320433cbe12dfa317c5a686 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) July precipitation central China seasonal prediction empirical model ENSO North Atlantic tripole SST mode Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 2024-08-05T17:49:23Z Abstract July is the rainy peak month of central China, with a large interannual variation of local precipitation often causing serious droughts and floods. The seasonal prediction of the central China July precipitation (CCJP) is an important but still challenging task. Here, we suggest several robust seasonal predictors for the CCJP, including the preceding winter intensity of El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO), the winter‐to‐spring decaying rate of ENSO signals in the central Pacific, as well as the spring tropical and subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. A physics‐based empirical model is then developed to predict the CCJP by using the principal component regression of the aforementioned seasonal predictors. In our statistical model, the seasonal prediction skill of the CCJP is high, with the cross‐validated reforecast skill at 0.81 during 1993–2021. This suggests a skillful seasonal prediction of the CCJP, with potentially enormous benefits for the local society and economy. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Geophysical Research Letters 50 3 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
July precipitation central China seasonal prediction empirical model ENSO North Atlantic tripole SST mode Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
July precipitation central China seasonal prediction empirical model ENSO North Atlantic tripole SST mode Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 Gen Li Lin Chen Bo Lu A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
topic_facet |
July precipitation central China seasonal prediction empirical model ENSO North Atlantic tripole SST mode Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
Abstract July is the rainy peak month of central China, with a large interannual variation of local precipitation often causing serious droughts and floods. The seasonal prediction of the central China July precipitation (CCJP) is an important but still challenging task. Here, we suggest several robust seasonal predictors for the CCJP, including the preceding winter intensity of El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO), the winter‐to‐spring decaying rate of ENSO signals in the central Pacific, as well as the spring tropical and subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies. A physics‐based empirical model is then developed to predict the CCJP by using the principal component regression of the aforementioned seasonal predictors. In our statistical model, the seasonal prediction skill of the CCJP is high, with the cross‐validated reforecast skill at 0.81 during 1993–2021. This suggests a skillful seasonal prediction of the CCJP, with potentially enormous benefits for the local society and economy. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gen Li Lin Chen Bo Lu |
author_facet |
Gen Li Lin Chen Bo Lu |
author_sort |
Gen Li |
title |
A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
title_short |
A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
title_full |
A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
title_fullStr |
A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Physics‐Based Empirical Model for the Seasonal Prediction of the Central China July Precipitation |
title_sort |
physics‐based empirical model for the seasonal prediction of the central china july precipitation |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/article/f42aefc25320433cbe12dfa317c5a686 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 50, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276 https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 1944-8007 0094-8276 doi:10.1029/2022GL101463 https://doaj.org/article/f42aefc25320433cbe12dfa317c5a686 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101463 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1809926106460979200 |