Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2
We introduce and study the impact of three stochastic schemes in the EC-Earth climate model: two atmospheric schemes and one stochastic land scheme. These form the basis for a probabilistic Earth system model in atmosphere-only mode. Stochastic parametrization have become standard in several operati...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f3e938d4ad6b4c1d9f287a12cfab24e4 2023-05-15T17:34:00+02:00 Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 K. Strommen H. M. Christensen D. MacLeod S. Juricke T. N. Palmer 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 https://doaj.org/article/f3e938d4ad6b4c1d9f287a12cfab24e4 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/3099/2019/gmd-12-3099-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/f3e938d4ad6b4c1d9f287a12cfab24e4 Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 12, Pp 3099-3118 (2019) Geology QE1-996.5 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 2022-12-31T04:27:20Z We introduce and study the impact of three stochastic schemes in the EC-Earth climate model: two atmospheric schemes and one stochastic land scheme. These form the basis for a probabilistic Earth system model in atmosphere-only mode. Stochastic parametrization have become standard in several operational weather-forecasting models, in particular due to their beneficial impact on model spread. In recent years, stochastic schemes in the atmospheric component of a model have been shown to improve aspects important for the models long-term climate, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic weather regimes, and the Indian monsoon. Stochasticity in the land component has been shown to improve the variability of soil processes and improve the representation of heatwaves over Europe. However, the raw impact of such schemes on the model mean is less well studied. It is shown that the inclusion of all three schemes notably changes the model mean state. While many of the impacts are beneficial, some are too large in amplitude, leading to significant changes in the model's energy budget and atmospheric circulation. This implies that in order to maintain the benefits of stochastic physics without shifting the mean state too far from observations, a full re-tuning of the model will typically be required. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Indian Geoscientific Model Development 12 7 3099 3118 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Geology QE1-996.5 K. Strommen H. M. Christensen D. MacLeod S. Juricke T. N. Palmer Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
We introduce and study the impact of three stochastic schemes in the EC-Earth climate model: two atmospheric schemes and one stochastic land scheme. These form the basis for a probabilistic Earth system model in atmosphere-only mode. Stochastic parametrization have become standard in several operational weather-forecasting models, in particular due to their beneficial impact on model spread. In recent years, stochastic schemes in the atmospheric component of a model have been shown to improve aspects important for the models long-term climate, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic weather regimes, and the Indian monsoon. Stochasticity in the land component has been shown to improve the variability of soil processes and improve the representation of heatwaves over Europe. However, the raw impact of such schemes on the model mean is less well studied. It is shown that the inclusion of all three schemes notably changes the model mean state. While many of the impacts are beneficial, some are too large in amplitude, leading to significant changes in the model's energy budget and atmospheric circulation. This implies that in order to maintain the benefits of stochastic physics without shifting the mean state too far from observations, a full re-tuning of the model will typically be required. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
K. Strommen H. M. Christensen D. MacLeod S. Juricke T. N. Palmer |
author_facet |
K. Strommen H. M. Christensen D. MacLeod S. Juricke T. N. Palmer |
author_sort |
K. Strommen |
title |
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
title_short |
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
title_full |
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
title_fullStr |
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2 |
title_sort |
progress towards a probabilistic earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of ec-earth v3.2 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 https://doaj.org/article/f3e938d4ad6b4c1d9f287a12cfab24e4 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol 12, Pp 3099-3118 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/3099/2019/gmd-12-3099-2019.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1991-959X https://doaj.org/toc/1991-9603 doi:10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 1991-959X 1991-9603 https://doaj.org/article/f3e938d4ad6b4c1d9f287a12cfab24e4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019 |
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Geoscientific Model Development |
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12 |
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7 |
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3099 |
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3118 |
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