Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization
The Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model is being tested in standalone mode to identify biases that limit its suitability for seasonal prediction, where it is driven by atmospheric forcings from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a built-in mixed-layer ocean model i...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f39e7208ec7846188337adea9abe3cc2 2024-09-15T17:48:17+00:00 Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization S. Sun A. Solomon 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 https://doaj.org/article/f39e7208ec7846188337adea9abe3cc2 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/3033/2024/tc-18-3033-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/f39e7208ec7846188337adea9abe3cc2 The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 3033-3048 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:01Z The Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model is being tested in standalone mode to identify biases that limit its suitability for seasonal prediction, where it is driven by atmospheric forcings from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a built-in mixed-layer ocean model in CICE. The initial conditions for the sea ice and mixed-layer ocean are also from CFSR in the control experiments. The simulated sea ice extent agrees well with observations during the warm season at all lead times up to 12 months, in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This suggests that CICE is able to provide useful sea ice edge information for seasonal prediction. However, the model's initial conditions have ice that is too thick in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in excessive ice extent in the Arctic at 6-month lead forecasts and errors in ice volume at all lead times when compared to available observations. To address this limitation, additional CS2_IC experiments were conducted, where the Arctic ice thickness was initialized using CryoSat-2 satellite observations while keeping all other initial fields the same as in the control experiments. This reduced the positive bias in the ice thickness in the initial conditions, leading to improvements in both the simulated ice edge and the ice thickness at the seasonal timescale. This indicates that CICE has the potential to improve its seasonal forecast skill and provide more accurate predictions of sea ice extent and thickness when initialized with a more realistic sea ice thickness. This study highlights that the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction depends on various factors, including initial conditions such as sea ice thickness, in addition to sea ice coverage, as well as oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 18 7 3033 3048 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 S. Sun A. Solomon Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The Los Alamos Community Ice CodE (CICE) sea ice model is being tested in standalone mode to identify biases that limit its suitability for seasonal prediction, where it is driven by atmospheric forcings from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a built-in mixed-layer ocean model in CICE. The initial conditions for the sea ice and mixed-layer ocean are also from CFSR in the control experiments. The simulated sea ice extent agrees well with observations during the warm season at all lead times up to 12 months, in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. This suggests that CICE is able to provide useful sea ice edge information for seasonal prediction. However, the model's initial conditions have ice that is too thick in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in excessive ice extent in the Arctic at 6-month lead forecasts and errors in ice volume at all lead times when compared to available observations. To address this limitation, additional CS2_IC experiments were conducted, where the Arctic ice thickness was initialized using CryoSat-2 satellite observations while keeping all other initial fields the same as in the control experiments. This reduced the positive bias in the ice thickness in the initial conditions, leading to improvements in both the simulated ice edge and the ice thickness at the seasonal timescale. This indicates that CICE has the potential to improve its seasonal forecast skill and provide more accurate predictions of sea ice extent and thickness when initialized with a more realistic sea ice thickness. This study highlights that the suitability of CICE for seasonal prediction depends on various factors, including initial conditions such as sea ice thickness, in addition to sea ice coverage, as well as oceanic and atmospheric conditions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Sun A. Solomon |
author_facet |
S. Sun A. Solomon |
author_sort |
S. Sun |
title |
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
title_short |
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
title_full |
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
title_fullStr |
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
title_full_unstemmed |
Suitability of the CICE sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization |
title_sort |
suitability of the cice sea ice model for seasonal prediction and positive impact of cryosat-2 ice thickness initialization |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 https://doaj.org/article/f39e7208ec7846188337adea9abe3cc2 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 3033-3048 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/3033/2024/tc-18-3033-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/f39e7208ec7846188337adea9abe3cc2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3033-2024 |
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The Cryosphere |
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18 |
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3033 |
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3048 |
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