The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.

• Published in: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Main Authors: Arvind Yerramilli, Ee Laine Tay, Andrew J Stewardson, Janet Fyfe, Daniel P O'Brien, Paul D R Johnson
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2018
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757; https://doaj.org/article/f3884606f37f4c2fa0bf6d4c2211d8bb

BACKGROUND:Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY:We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. CONCLUSIONS:Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.