Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model
Evaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) mod...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 2023-05-15T17:33:41+02:00 Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/article/f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 EN eng Hindawi Limited http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/article/f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2015 (2015) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 2022-12-31T09:29:18Z Evaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model for the northern hemisphere (NH) and compare them to storm tracks generated from NCEP’s reanalysis I data, the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF) ERA40 data, and CFS reanalysis data. To assess interannual variability, we analyze the impacts of El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We show that the CFS model is capable of simulating realistic storm tracks for frequency and intensity in the NH. The CFS storm tracks exhibit a reasonable response to El Niño and the NAO. However, it did not capture interannual variability for the IOD. Since one path by which storm tracks respond to external forcing is via Rossby waves due to anomalous heating, the CFS model may not be able to capture this effect especially since anomalous heating for the IOD is more local than El Niño. Our assessment is that the CFS model’s storm track response is sensitive to the strength of external forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Indian Advances in Meteorology 2015 1 13 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Evaluating the climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in climate models represents an excellent way to evaluate their ability to simulate synoptic-scale phenomena. We generate storm tracks from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model for the northern hemisphere (NH) and compare them to storm tracks generated from NCEP’s reanalysis I data, the European Centre for Medium Range Prediction (ECMWF) ERA40 data, and CFS reanalysis data. To assess interannual variability, we analyze the impacts of El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We show that the CFS model is capable of simulating realistic storm tracks for frequency and intensity in the NH. The CFS storm tracks exhibit a reasonable response to El Niño and the NAO. However, it did not capture interannual variability for the IOD. Since one path by which storm tracks respond to external forcing is via Rossby waves due to anomalous heating, the CFS model may not be able to capture this effect especially since anomalous heating for the IOD is more local than El Niño. Our assessment is that the CFS model’s storm track response is sensitive to the strength of external forcing. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck |
author_facet |
Timothy Paul Eichler Francisco Alvarez Jon Gottschalck |
author_sort |
Timothy Paul Eichler |
title |
Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
title_short |
Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
title_full |
Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
title_fullStr |
Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Northern Hemisphere Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm Tracks in NCEP’s CFS Model |
title_sort |
northern hemisphere climatology and interannual variability of storm tracks in ncep’s cfs model |
publisher |
Hindawi Limited |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/article/f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Advances in Meteorology, Vol 2015 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9309 https://doaj.org/toc/1687-9317 1687-9309 1687-9317 doi:10.1155/2015/720545 https://doaj.org/article/f281806410ee46fc99fcef90d9961aa1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/720545 |
container_title |
Advances in Meteorology |
container_volume |
2015 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
13 |
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1766132271586213888 |