Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling
Ephedra equisetina, the Nitraria species complex (N. sibirica, N. roborowskii and N. sphaerocarpa), and Rheum nanum are the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear (Ursus arctos gobiensis), a subspecies of the brown bear, found in the Gobi desert of Mongolia. Their location and distribution range are c...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 https://doaj.org/article/f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa 2023-05-15T18:42:17+02:00 Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling Aili Qin Kun Jin Munkh-Erdene Batsaikhan Javkhlan Nyamjav Guangliang Li Jia Li Yadong Xue Ge Sun Liji Wu Tuvshintogtokh Indree Zuomin Shi Wenfa Xiao 2020-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 https://doaj.org/article/f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420301621 https://doaj.org/toc/2351-9894 2351-9894 doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 https://doaj.org/article/f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa Global Ecology and Conservation, Vol 22, Iss , Pp - (2020) Maxent The Gobi Bear Highly suitable habitat Dietary plants Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 2022-12-31T01:10:38Z Ephedra equisetina, the Nitraria species complex (N. sibirica, N. roborowskii and N. sphaerocarpa), and Rheum nanum are the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear (Ursus arctos gobiensis), a subspecies of the brown bear, found in the Gobi desert of Mongolia. Their location and distribution range are closely related to the Gobi Bear survival. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of these species is essential for the future conservation and management of the Gobi Bear. In this study, we modeled the current and future distribution of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear based on one representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) for the period from 2041 to 2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s) using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Our results showed that the precipitation-associated variables had the strongest effect on the distributions of these species. Among these variables, the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) was the most important variable affecting the suitability of the habitats. Under the current climate conditions, the areas of the highly suitable (>0.6) habitat for E. equisetina, the Nitraria species complex, and R. nanum were 3,888.51, 23,727.78 and 13,816.88 km2, respectively, accounting for 8%, 52% and 30% of the Great Gobi “A” Strictly Protected Area. In the year 2050s and 2070s, the highly suitable habitat areas for E. equisetina and R. nanum will continue to increase and eventually reach to 23% and 36%, respectively. The Nitraria species complex would first be reduced to 33% in the 2050s and then increase to 36% in the 2070s. With the climate warming, the highly suitable habitats of the Gobi Bear’s main dietary plants would shift to the southeast. These results, together with previous studies about the Gobi Bear distribution can provide useful information and a reasonable reference for managers to put forward suggestions for better protection of the Gobi Bear. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ursus arctos Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Global Ecology and Conservation 22 e01032 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Maxent The Gobi Bear Highly suitable habitat Dietary plants Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Maxent The Gobi Bear Highly suitable habitat Dietary plants Ecology QH540-549.5 Aili Qin Kun Jin Munkh-Erdene Batsaikhan Javkhlan Nyamjav Guangliang Li Jia Li Yadong Xue Ge Sun Liji Wu Tuvshintogtokh Indree Zuomin Shi Wenfa Xiao Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
topic_facet |
Maxent The Gobi Bear Highly suitable habitat Dietary plants Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Ephedra equisetina, the Nitraria species complex (N. sibirica, N. roborowskii and N. sphaerocarpa), and Rheum nanum are the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear (Ursus arctos gobiensis), a subspecies of the brown bear, found in the Gobi desert of Mongolia. Their location and distribution range are closely related to the Gobi Bear survival. Analyzing the impact of climate change on the possible distribution of these species is essential for the future conservation and management of the Gobi Bear. In this study, we modeled the current and future distribution of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear based on one representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6) for the period from 2041 to 2060 (2050s) and 2061-2080 (2070s) using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Our results showed that the precipitation-associated variables had the strongest effect on the distributions of these species. Among these variables, the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) was the most important variable affecting the suitability of the habitats. Under the current climate conditions, the areas of the highly suitable (>0.6) habitat for E. equisetina, the Nitraria species complex, and R. nanum were 3,888.51, 23,727.78 and 13,816.88 km2, respectively, accounting for 8%, 52% and 30% of the Great Gobi “A” Strictly Protected Area. In the year 2050s and 2070s, the highly suitable habitat areas for E. equisetina and R. nanum will continue to increase and eventually reach to 23% and 36%, respectively. The Nitraria species complex would first be reduced to 33% in the 2050s and then increase to 36% in the 2070s. With the climate warming, the highly suitable habitats of the Gobi Bear’s main dietary plants would shift to the southeast. These results, together with previous studies about the Gobi Bear distribution can provide useful information and a reasonable reference for managers to put forward suggestions for better protection of the Gobi Bear. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aili Qin Kun Jin Munkh-Erdene Batsaikhan Javkhlan Nyamjav Guangliang Li Jia Li Yadong Xue Ge Sun Liji Wu Tuvshintogtokh Indree Zuomin Shi Wenfa Xiao |
author_facet |
Aili Qin Kun Jin Munkh-Erdene Batsaikhan Javkhlan Nyamjav Guangliang Li Jia Li Yadong Xue Ge Sun Liji Wu Tuvshintogtokh Indree Zuomin Shi Wenfa Xiao |
author_sort |
Aili Qin |
title |
Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
title_short |
Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
title_full |
Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the Gobi Bear using MaxEnt modeling |
title_sort |
predicting the current and future suitable habitats of the main dietary plants of the gobi bear using maxent modeling |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 https://doaj.org/article/f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa |
genre |
Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Ursus arctos |
op_source |
Global Ecology and Conservation, Vol 22, Iss , Pp - (2020) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989420301621 https://doaj.org/toc/2351-9894 2351-9894 doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 https://doaj.org/article/f17ac7e3752a49629d7f9545bf3ae0aa |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01032 |
container_title |
Global Ecology and Conservation |
container_volume |
22 |
container_start_page |
e01032 |
_version_ |
1766231926181462016 |