Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations
We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are hig...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f165558c696842a085b43686d12d3f4a 2023-09-05T13:21:36+02:00 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations L F Borchert V Koul M B Menary D J Befort D Swingedouw G Sgubin J Mignot 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 https://doaj.org/article/f165558c696842a085b43686d12d3f4a EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/f165558c696842a085b43686d12d3f4a Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 10, p 104017 (2021) climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 2023-08-13T00:37:05Z We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic—Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2–9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 16 10 104017 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 L F Borchert V Koul M B Menary D J Befort D Swingedouw G Sgubin J Mignot Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
topic_facet |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970–2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic—Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2–9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
L F Borchert V Koul M B Menary D J Befort D Swingedouw G Sgubin J Mignot |
author_facet |
L F Borchert V Koul M B Menary D J Befort D Swingedouw G Sgubin J Mignot |
author_sort |
L F Borchert |
title |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_short |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_fullStr |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_sort |
skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern european summer temperature variations |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 https://doaj.org/article/f165558c696842a085b43686d12d3f4a |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 10, p 104017 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/f165558c696842a085b43686d12d3f4a |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104017 |
_version_ |
1776202198652289024 |