Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020.
Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control in...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f0936a19791e45ffb57589904e8f02ef 2023-05-15T15:11:58+02:00 Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. Amna Tariq Eduardo A Undurraga Carla Castillo Laborde Katia Vogt-Geisse Ruiyan Luo Richard Rothenberg Gerardo Chowell 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/article/f0936a19791e45ffb57589904e8f02ef EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/article/f0936a19791e45ffb57589904e8f02ef PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 1, p e0009070 (2021) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 2022-12-31T11:56:29Z Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile's incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15 1 e0009070 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Amna Tariq Eduardo A Undurraga Carla Castillo Laborde Katia Vogt-Geisse Ruiyan Luo Richard Rothenberg Gerardo Chowell Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3rd, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2nd, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile's incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number, R, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with R estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2nd, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (p ~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (p ~0.5) as of July 7th, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Amna Tariq Eduardo A Undurraga Carla Castillo Laborde Katia Vogt-Geisse Ruiyan Luo Richard Rothenberg Gerardo Chowell |
author_facet |
Amna Tariq Eduardo A Undurraga Carla Castillo Laborde Katia Vogt-Geisse Ruiyan Luo Richard Rothenberg Gerardo Chowell |
author_sort |
Amna Tariq |
title |
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
title_short |
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
title_full |
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
title_fullStr |
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020. |
title_sort |
transmission dynamics and control of covid-19 in chile, march-october, 2020. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/article/f0936a19791e45ffb57589904e8f02ef |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 15, Iss 1, p e0009070 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 https://doaj.org/article/f0936a19791e45ffb57589904e8f02ef |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009070 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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15 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
e0009070 |
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