Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden.
BACKGROUND:Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model and results from indoor residual spr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:f019fb000f0b48938284b1238611d7d4 2023-05-15T15:13:21+02:00 Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. Thomas J Hladish Carl A B Pearson Diana Patricia Rojas Hector Gomez-Dantes M Elizabeth Halloran Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec Ira M Longini 2018-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 https://doaj.org/article/f019fb000f0b48938284b1238611d7d4 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6042783?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 https://doaj.org/article/f019fb000f0b48938284b1238611d7d4 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 6, p e0006570 (2018) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 2022-12-30T21:03:12Z BACKGROUND:Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model and results from indoor residual spraying (IRS) field experiments, we investigated how IRS-like campaign scenarios could effectively control dengue in an endemic setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS:In our model, we found that high levels of household coverage (75% treated once per year), applied proactively before the typical dengue season could reduce symptomatic infections by 89.7% (median of 1000 simulations; interquartile range [IQR]:[83.0%, 94.8%]) in year one and 78.2% (IQR: [71.2%, 88.0%]) cumulatively over the first five years of an annual program. Lower coverage had correspondingly lower effectiveness, as did reactive campaigns. Though less effective than preventative campaigns, reactive and even post-epidemic interventions retain some effectiveness; these campaigns disrupt inter-seasonal transmission, highlighting an off-season control opportunity. Regardless, none of the campaign scenarios maintain their initial effectiveness beyond two seasons, instead stabilizing at much lower levels of benefit: in year 20, median effectiveness was only 27.3% (IQR: [-21.3%, 56.6%]). Furthermore, simply ceasing an initially successful program exposes a population with lowered herd immunity to the same historical threat, and we observed outbreaks more than four-fold larger than pre-intervention outbreaks. These results do not take into account evolving insecticide resistance, thus long-term effectiveness may be lower if new, efficacious insecticides are not developed. CONCLUSIONS:Using a detailed agent-based dengue transmission model for Yucatán State, Mexico, we predict that high coverage indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions can largely eliminate transmission for a few years, when applied a few months before the typical seasonal epidemic peak. However, ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12 6 e0006570 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Thomas J Hladish Carl A B Pearson Diana Patricia Rojas Hector Gomez-Dantes M Elizabeth Halloran Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec Ira M Longini Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:Historically, mosquito control programs successfully helped contain malaria and yellow fever, but recent efforts have been unable to halt the spread of dengue, chikungunya, or Zika, all transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Using a dengue transmission model and results from indoor residual spraying (IRS) field experiments, we investigated how IRS-like campaign scenarios could effectively control dengue in an endemic setting. METHODS AND FINDINGS:In our model, we found that high levels of household coverage (75% treated once per year), applied proactively before the typical dengue season could reduce symptomatic infections by 89.7% (median of 1000 simulations; interquartile range [IQR]:[83.0%, 94.8%]) in year one and 78.2% (IQR: [71.2%, 88.0%]) cumulatively over the first five years of an annual program. Lower coverage had correspondingly lower effectiveness, as did reactive campaigns. Though less effective than preventative campaigns, reactive and even post-epidemic interventions retain some effectiveness; these campaigns disrupt inter-seasonal transmission, highlighting an off-season control opportunity. Regardless, none of the campaign scenarios maintain their initial effectiveness beyond two seasons, instead stabilizing at much lower levels of benefit: in year 20, median effectiveness was only 27.3% (IQR: [-21.3%, 56.6%]). Furthermore, simply ceasing an initially successful program exposes a population with lowered herd immunity to the same historical threat, and we observed outbreaks more than four-fold larger than pre-intervention outbreaks. These results do not take into account evolving insecticide resistance, thus long-term effectiveness may be lower if new, efficacious insecticides are not developed. CONCLUSIONS:Using a detailed agent-based dengue transmission model for Yucatán State, Mexico, we predict that high coverage indoor residual spraying (IRS) interventions can largely eliminate transmission for a few years, when applied a few months before the typical seasonal epidemic peak. However, ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thomas J Hladish Carl A B Pearson Diana Patricia Rojas Hector Gomez-Dantes M Elizabeth Halloran Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec Ira M Longini |
author_facet |
Thomas J Hladish Carl A B Pearson Diana Patricia Rojas Hector Gomez-Dantes M Elizabeth Halloran Gonzalo M Vazquez-Prokopec Ira M Longini |
author_sort |
Thomas J Hladish |
title |
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
title_short |
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
title_full |
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
title_sort |
forecasting the effectiveness of indoor residual spraying for reducing dengue burden. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 https://doaj.org/article/f019fb000f0b48938284b1238611d7d4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 12, Iss 6, p e0006570 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC6042783?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 https://doaj.org/article/f019fb000f0b48938284b1238611d7d4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006570 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0006570 |
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1766343914336288768 |